• EL RO: On the EGSM of today, shareholders agreed to resume negotiations with Fondul Proprietatea for the acquisitions of the Fund’s minority stakes in distribution and supply subsidiaries and to increase the number of Board members from 5 to 7.
• Resumption of talks with FP, which failed because on transaction price disagreements, was requested by a group of shareholders including Newtyn, ING and EBRD. Shareholders will meet again on December 14, 2015 to elect a new Board.

Fund sees potential listing of Enel, E.ON Romanian units

Fondul Proprietatea SA, Romania’s largest closed-end fund, is waiting for the price of oil to start increasing and open a window of opportunity for listing some of its shares inOMV Petrom SA in London, saidGreg Konieczny, the fund’s manager.

Petrom, Romania’s largest oil company that received shareholder approval for a secondary listing in London on Sept. 22, has its shares currently trading at a three-year low as the price “has been hit more than it should,” Konieczny said in an interview in Bucharest on Wednesday.

“I don’t think it makes sense at the current valuation levels of Petrom, at
least from my perspective, to think about selling shares,” Konieczny said.

Fondul Proprietatea, which was set up to compensate citizens for property confiscated during Communism and holds shares in Romania’s biggest companies, has been trying to secure liquidity by selling some of its assets to fund share buy-back programs aimed at boosting is share price.

The fund’s shares fell 0.3 percent to 0.787 lei at 5 p.m. in Bucharest, while Petrom shares rose 0.2 percent to 0.33 lei, after trading at the lowest level since Jan. 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fondul Proprietatea plans to lower its Petrom holding below 15 percent from the current 19 percent but it will be “mindful of where the market is,” Konieczny said.

The fund is also ready to resume talks with Electrica SA on selling its minority stakes in power distributors’ units afterfailing to reach an accord on a deal in April because of the price, he said.

Shareholder Interest

“It looks like the minority shareholders of Electrica are interested in
this transaction, we are too, but I think the discussion can really start when both
parties are ready to enter these negotiations,” Konieczny said.

With no initial public offerings conducted on the local capital market this year, Fondul is considering urging the government to askENEL SpA andE.ON SE to agree on listing the shares of their local units, in which both the state and the fund are minority shareholders, according to Konieczny.

“It’s also in the interest of the government to have a firm market price for
these holdings,” he said. If ENEL and E.ON “receive a request from the government and based on the privatization agreement, they cannot say no.”

Romania failed to deliver on pledges to sell at least three companies on the stock exchange this year, which was part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, because of legal issues or accumulating losses. That agreement expired last month and the government plans to ask for a new deal by the end of this year. The delays are harming the Fund’s plans, Konieczny said.

“It’s a big issue,” Konieczny said. “For us it’s a problem because if the local capital market doesn’t grow, the fund will have to get smaller and smaller.”

The fund is also pushing for the listing of Salrom, a salt producer, in which it has a 49 percent stake, with the state holding the rest of 51 percent, according to Konieczny. A new shareholders meeting will take place in about 30 days to vote on the listing, he said, adding that he hopes the Economy Ministry will agree with the plan after receiving “some new information.”

The sixth buyback programme kicked off on the 9th of September. FP aims at repurchasing 891,770,055 shares (and the equivalent GDRs representing) 7.97% of the outstanding shares. The Fund may not hold more than 10% of its own shares and currently own 227,572,250 titles (2.03% stake) acquired in the context of the fifth programme, completed in late July. The launch of the sixth round became possible after FSA approved in August the cancellation of 990,855,616 shares bought back during the fourth acquisition programme. The maximum unfolding period of this buy-back expires on 15 November 2016.

• FP is confident in raising sufficient cash to finance the programme mainly through holdings disposal, as it declared that leveraging is not seen as a long-term plan. In August, FP reported available funds of RON 839m, out of which RON 450m represented the short-term credit facility from Citibank that will expire at the end of 2015.
• As the 15% discount to NAV objective has not been met, we estimate that FP would need a tender offer of RON 1.4-1.5b in order to reach it by year-end.
• • If the tender offer would be made for 100% of the shares to be repurchased during the sixth buyback, the cash return would need to stand at RON 1,514m implying a tender offer price of RON 1.6976 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.0985 and would raise the market price to RON 0.9337.
  • If the tender offer would be made for 80% of the shares to be repurchased, the cash return would need to stand at RON 1,418m implying a tender offer price of RON 1.9873 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.0884 and would raise the market price to RON 0.9252.
• With the funds available at the end of August, FP would be able to reduce the discount to NAV to some 25% through a tender offer by year-end. 
• • If the tender offer would be made for 100% of the shares to be repurchased during the sixth buyback, the cash return would need stand at RON 854m implying a tender offer price of RON 0.9581 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.1664 and would raise the market price to RON 0.8748.
  • If the tender offer would be made for 80% of the shares, the cash return would stand at RON 759m implying a tender offer price of RON 1.0637 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.1551 and would raise the market price to RON 0.8663.
• We estimate that FP would need a tender offer of RON 1.1b in order to reach a discount to NAV of 20% by year-end.
• • If the tender offer would be made for 100% of the shares to be repurchased during the sixth buyback, the cash return would need stand at RON 1,194m implying a tender offer price of RON 1.3389 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.1315 and would raise the market price to RON 0.9052.
  • If the tender offer would be made for 80% of the shares, the cash return would stand at RON 1,098m implying a tender offer price of RON 1.5392 per share that would reduce the NAVPS to RON 1.1208 and would raise the market price to RON 0.8966.
• Our view. Given the cash return and offer price implied, we do not believe that the 15% discount target would be reached through a tender offer by year-end. The other two scenarios are more plausible in case the Fund targets the discount reduction this year. FP RO is currently traded at a 30% discount to NAV. For further information pls contact Daniela Mandru +4021.408.4216.
• Please see the computation in the attached excel spreadsheet.

Fondul just announced that the 6th buyback programme will commence tomorrow Sep 9th; up to 891.7mn shs may be bought back until Nov 15 2016; buyback is applicable to both shares and DRs. Goldman Sachs is the agent for the buyback. THey can buy up to 25% of daily volumes

Getinge announced its restructuring plan today. The stock reacted +8%. In the comming days the analysts updates will push the stock further up. See my article :

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2882916-getinge-a-restructuring-play

http://www.opap.gr/en/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=8036cb5b-36e2-4e47-9c1b-0563f552a1cb&groupId=11503

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3354185-opportunity-to-make-money-with-paul-singer

Fondul Proprietatea trades ex dividend today, the share price is down 6%. The NAV discount is therefore 31%!!! In the past FP traded up quickly post dividend.

Positive news this year:

– another buyback approved

– Paul Singer, the largest FP investor, is increasing its role in the FP management

– FP shares are now trading in London (can be bough on IB)

– Hydroelectrica posting record profits

The link to the latest fact sheet:

Click to access fp_factsheet_-_may_2015.pdf

I have a medium position in Alrosa. The shares traded down recently so I am increasing my exposure. Morgan Stanley have the same view (report issued today)

ALROSA (ALRS.MM)

Research Tactical Idea

We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days.

This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. We see a few encouraging trends that could help reverse ALROSA’s recent underperformance: 1) the last diamond sales by De Beers and ALROSA have shown that rough diamond prices seem to have bottomed; 2) ALROSA’s new CEO’s first statements to the press suggest that the company will continue focusing on the high margin upstream operations; 3) ALROSA reports 2Q15 operational results on Jul 21, where we hope to see further diamond mix improvement; 4) wage inflation should slow following the spike in 1Q15; 5) we assume ALROSA will support diamond prices by potentially reducing the amount of inventory it aims to sell in 2015. Valuation remains attractive on 20% FCF yield and 4.6x P/E for 2015.

We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or “very likely”) probability for the scenario.

Source: Morgan Stanley