Fondul Proprietatea started fift buy-back programme

Franklin Templeton Investment Management informed that the fifth buy-back programme started on 10 February 2015. In the buyback, the fund will buy up to 227,572,250 shares.

The Fund will be buying up to 25% of the average daily volume of the Fund’s shares.

The best oil price analysis I read to date

From Ft.com 29.1.2014

January 28, 2015 5:03 pm

Tricks of the mind turned oil into gold

In 2007 I made a bet with a fellow Russian businessman. The price of oil, he told me, would never drop below $80 again. This was the consensus among oilmen at the time. And that, I thought, was the surest sign that the oil price would soon start falling.

I told my acquaintance that the oil price could easily go down to $40. What determines it, I said, is not supply, demand or the cost of production. Rather, what matters is the mere perception of a potential shortage.

The price of oil stayed high only because people believed there was not enough of it to go around. But once people believe that, consumers start looking for an alternative while producers try to pump more of the stuff — and then prices fall.

I am not a professional oilman and my assumptions were based not on knowledge of geology or the rate of economic growth in China, but on the simple fact that humanity usually finds a way around any obstacle in its path.

While many of my colleagues in Russia and elsewhere are arguing about when the oil price may bounce back, I am convinced that we have entered a new period of low oil prices. It is like alchemy, but in reverse: black gold, a precious substance whose price was determined by its scarcity, has turned into a black, smelly liquid that makes wheels turn.

It is not the first time this has happened. The price of oil was relatively stable until the 1970s brought the psychological shock of an embargo imposed by Saudi Arabia on the export of oil to America.

In 1975, the US started its petroleum strategic reserve, contributing to the perception that oil was scarce. Oil producers saw their main objective was to guard their oligopoly. No one cared about such trifling matters as efficiency — the distribution of licences was far more important. A good lobbyist was worth more to an oil company than a good engineer.

To deal with this challenge, developed countries started to invest in energy saving and new technologies, and by the early 1980s this started to yield results. The ensuing fall in oil prices eventually sapped the Soviet Union of its economic lifeblood.

Rapid economic growth in China and India in the early 2000s changed the perception about the balance between demand for oil and its scarcity. And once again developed countries with high levels of entrepreneurial freedom set themselves to work on solving the bottleneck.

There was no single solution, but everyone thought of something: biofuel, wind energy, oil sands, shale.

It was no accident that the countries that led the innovation were liberal market economies with strong property rights, while the countries that wished to thwart these efforts were resentful of competition and riddled with monopolists. They treated private property as a concession that could easily be taken away.

Political systems based on the distribution of rent demoralise people. Political regimes based on free competition motivate people. It is because of free initiative and competition that humanity can overcome bottlenecks.

The reason America has led the way in the production of shale oil and gas is not that it has a lot of shale — many other countries have a similar geology. It is that America has a lot of economic freedom.

This is a precious resource that many other countries lack. Its government does not sell licences for onshore drilling. It lets people buy land, and promises that nobody can take away from you what it is yours.

The dizzying oil prices of recent years were profoundly abnormal. The fall will turn oil production into a proper business where costs and efficiency matter more than lobbying power. This stands to make the world freer and safer, by reducing the power of illiberal regimes that thrive on oil rents.

Two years ago, I found myself in Manaus, a unique city in Brazil’s Amazonas, in the middle of the rainforest. In the late 19th century Manaus became one of the richest and most extravagant cities thanks to the rubber it had.

It built a splendid Belle Époque-style opera house out of Italian marble with vast domes and gilded balconies. But a few years later the seeds of the rubber tree were smuggled out of the Amazon and Brazil lost its monopoly.

Then the invention of artificial rubber finally buried the entire prosperity of this tropical Paris. Manaus fell into poverty, electricity generation became too expensive and the opera house went dark. It is a powerful lesson to the futility of suppressing competition.

The writer is an international businessman and chairman of LetterOne Group and Alfa Group Consortium

Getinge up 10% today. Furhter upside on the way

I have written here about Getinge before. Today, as predicted, Getinge announced that FDA is concluding its investigation with only symbolic fine. As a result the share is 10% up before the call.

I believe there is another 10% on the table. The company announced that they will host an investor day to inform investors on the restructuring and costs saving plan. Both the announcement and the event itself will drive the share price up further. Below is Reuters article:

UPDATE 1-Getinge shares shoot up as U.S. regulatory woes clear

    * Getinge sees FDA agreement soon, to cost about 500 mln SEK 
    * Sees improved growth in 2015 
    * Q4 adjusted EBITA 1.99 bln SEK vs poll forecast 2.11 bln. 
 
 (Adds detail, background, shares) 
    STOCKHOLM, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Swedish medical technology 
firm Getinge <GETIb.ST> said regulatory troubles in its biggest 
market looked set to end, sending its shares sharply higher as 
it posted fourth-quarter core profit below expectations. 
    Inspections by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had 
forced it to spend heavily to improve manufacturing quality 
controls in its biggest business area and led to a cloudy short 
term profit outlook in the face of potential fines and 
restrictions on what products it can sell in its biggest market. 
    Getinge said on Wednesday it expected to reach an agreement 
with the FDA soon which would shave about 500 million Swedish 
crowns ($61 million) off its operating profit this year but did 
not provide further details of the deal. 
    Shares in Getinge rose by 10 percent to 205.50 crowns by 
1257 GMT, on track for their biggest one-day gain in six years, 
as the regulatory uncertainty looked set to clear. 
    That uncertainty had weighed on its shares, which had fallen 
15 percent since the start of 2014 by Tuesday's close against a 
rise of 31 percent in the STOXX Europe Healthcare index <.SXDP> 
    "This is mainly about risk reduction and the fact that they 
can already outline the extra costs for the FDA process," said 
Swedbank analyst Johan Unnerus.  
    Earnings before interest, taxes, amortisation and 
restructuring costs fell to 1.99 billion Swedish crowns ($243 
million) in the fourth quarter from a year-earlier 2.06 billion. 
The mean forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts was for 2.11 
billion. [ID:nL6N0V11LR] 
    Getinge said it expected better growth in 2015 after posting 
like-for-like sales growth of 0.6 percent in 2014, and that the 
potential for improving profitability in the medium term 
remained favourable. 
($1 = 8.1757 Swedish crowns) 

Fondul Proprietatea posts record profit, on asset sales

January 16, 2015 03:07 pm

Fondul Proprietatea posts record profit, on asset sales

Romanian investment fund Fondul Proprietatea (FP) ended 2014 with a record net profit of EUR 228 million, up by 48% compared to 2013, when the company’s profit amounted to EUR 151.1 million.

Most of this profit came from dividends paid by companies in which FP holds stakes, as well as from the fund’s asset sales, which reached EUR 240 million in 2014. The fund sold several significant stakes last year, in gas producer Romgaz, electricity transport company Transelectrica and oil pipe operator Conpet.

The fund’s profit is less relevant for investors, as fund manager Franklin Templeton convinced FP’s shareholders to give up on dividends. In return, FP will repay them some of the fund’s share capital, amounting to RON 0.5 per share, which is tax free, unlike dividends which are taxed with a 16% flat rate in Romania.

Fondul Proprietatea’s net asset value amounted to EUR 2.95 billion at the end of December, down by 11.8% from EUR 3.35 billion in December last year, according to a report sent by FP to the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB).

This was mainly influenced by the decline registered by OMV Petrom shares, which went down by 13% last year. The 19% stake held in OMV Petrom is FP’s largest individual holding, representing a third of its net asset value. Part of the fund’s net asset decline was also determined by the payments made by the fund to its own shareholders, either via capital returns or via share repurchase programs.

Fondul Proprietatea last year cancelled 1.34 billion of its own shares, which it had bought back in previous years and started a new buyback program for 990 million of its owns shares. As part of this program, the fund also made a buyback offer for 750 million shares, paying EUR 186 million to shareholders. The price in the offer was higher than the market price by about 18%.

These buyback programs are aimed at reducing the discount for which the fund’s shares are traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) compared to its net asset value per share, which is the main indicator investors follow.

FP’s shares are currently trading at RON 0.84/share, as of Friday, January 16, compared to a NAV per share of RON 1.2125/share, on December 31, 2014. This stands for a 30% discount.

Andrei Chirileasa, andrei@romania-insider.com

Getinge – time to profit

On 12 January 2015, GETIB announced that the current CEO, Johann Malmquist, had informed the Board that he would like to resign from his current assignment. As a result the Board had decided to appoint Alex Myers as the new President and CEO of the Getinge Group, effective 25 March 2015. Mr Myers is currently President and CEO of Hilding Anders, a global leader within the bedding industry with a turnover of SEK9bn and 8,000 employees. Mr Myers has previous experience with GETIB, having been the Executive VP for the Extended Care business during 2009-2013.

Under the leadership of Johan Malmquist, GETIB has undergone a successful growth phase over the past 18 years, turning the company into a major supplier of medical capital equipment and consumables. However the last 2-3 years have been more challenging, with several earnings disappointments and more recently a material FDA uncertainty within its Medical Systems division. Investor feedback over the past 6-12 months made it increasingly clear, that these disappointments have resulted in a major stock overhang, with reduced investor interest in GETIB. The announcement yeasterday resulted  in further price weakness.

Morgan Stanley research, parts of which are quoted here, claims that they had discussion with GETIB post the press release, that did not suggest that business has become incrementally more challenging or that the FDA negotiations around its Medical Systems division have become more problematic. Johan Malmquist was quoted in the press that he expects resolution of the FDA investigation by late January / early February. If so, than the current price weakness caused by Malmquist resignation is a good time to buy.

See below my detailed analysis why Getinge is a good opportunity at current price levels

Fondul Proprietatea to distributte EUR 137 mln to investors

Romanian investment fund Fondul Proprietatea (FP) has proposed a reduction of its share capital by RON 610 million (EUR 137 million) and the distribution of this amount to its shareholders, according to an announcement posted on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB).

Each shareholder would receive RON 0.05 per share. The distribution of cash is about 5.3% of the price for which its shares were traded on Tuesday (November 18), which was of RON 0.9395.

“The decrease is motivated by the optimization of the fund’s share capital” reads the FP report. This would be the second capital distribution made by the fund.

The fund also has a buyback public offer ongoing for 750 million of its own shares (representing 6% of its capital) at a price of RON 1.11 per share. With this offer, the fund will pay its shareholders another EUR 186 million. The offer ends on December 2.

The fund is currently valued on the Bucharest Stock Exchange at EUR 2.64 billion.