Making money is about great ideas.
Damadoran is the biggest guru in Corporate finance. Watch the video from about 14 minute. He talks on valuation, Tesla and Valeant. Well spent 8 miuntes.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/04/aswath-damodaran-valeant-accounting-valuation/
Also recommended:
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.cz/
OMV Petrom is the largest stock in Fondul portfolio. Its underperformance is limiting Fondul Proprietatea growth. Interestingly, OMV Petrom is significantly underperforming its parent OMV AG.
By Grant Smith, Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) —
Global oil markets will “move close to balance” in the second half of the year as lower prices take their toll on production outside OPEC, the International Energy Agency said.
The world surplus will diminish to 200,000 barrels a day in the last six months of the year from 1.5 million in the first half, the agency said in a report on Thursday. Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline by the most since 1992 as the U.S. shale oil boom falters. The glut is also being tempered as Iran restores exports only gradually with financial barriers to sales persisting even after the lifting of international sanctions.
“There is no doubt as to the direction of travel for the supply-demand balance,” the Paris-based adviser to industrialized nations said. “There are signs that the much-anticipated slide in production of light, tight oil in the U.S. is gathering pace.”
Oil prices, which sank to 12-year lows in January amid a global surplus, have climbed 30 percent in the past two months as OPEC and Russia work on a plan to limit their crude production. Still, without any proposal to reduce supply, there will be little real impact from the accord, due to be finalized in Doha this weekend, the IEA said. Brent crude futures traded near $43 a barrel on Thursday, close to a four-month high.
The latest outlook represents a shift for the agency, which as recently as February raised its estimates of the global surplus and warned that the potential for further price losses had intensified. The prospect of markets re-balancing before year-end is gaining traction among analysts, with Credit Suisse Group AG predicting on Wednesday that stockpiles will contract in the third quarter.
Supplies outside OPEC will decline by about 700,000 barrels a day this year to an average of 57 million a day. While U.S. shale output “has been more resilient to lower prices and the drop in drilling activity than expected,” there’s growing evidence “that output declines are accelerating,” the IEA said. The nation’s crude production fell below 9 million barrels a day last week for the first time in 18 months, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday.
The IEA, which said last month it may lower oil demand forecasts amid slowing economic activity, said it remained confident that world fuel consumption will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016, or 1.2 percent. India is close to surpassing China as “the main engine of global demand growth,” according to the agency.
OPEC continues to pump about 1.2 million barrels a day more than the average required in the first half of the year, the report showed. The group’s 13 members produced 32.47 million barrels a day in March, a decrease of 90,000 a day from February because of disruptions in Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.
Iran, which saw three years of oil sanctions lifted following a deal on its nuclear program in January, has boosted output 400,000 barrels a day since the start of the year to 3.3 million. Still, ongoing financial sanctions mean the pace of its return is “more measured than some expected,” the IEA said.
I am buying Valeant bonds for my portfolio.I selected 2023 as the re-rating potential is the highest. The 2023 bonds offer 9% yield. In current environment such yield is worth considering. Before you make the move, consider first reading this good common sence article from Seeking Alpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959966-valeant-pharmaceuticals-sum-parts-analysis?ifp=0
Below I offer a summary of the research released today by Morgan Stanley on the press release issued by the company today:
Risk of severe debtor pressure appears to have diminished, assuming Valeant files its 10K by April 29. Valeant stated in its press release today that it believes it can file its 10-K on or before April 29, which is the end of the cure period under the credit agreement. However, the fact that Valeant is still seeking an extension of the deadline “to be prudent” means this timing is not guaranteed.
A key concern to us is the apparent lack of internal financial controls, which could result in additional negative disclosures. Beyond additional details on the financial misstatements, the press release stated “one or more material weaknesses exist in the company’s internal control over financial reporting” and that “internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures will not be effective at December 31, 2015.”
Leadership culture criticized; hopefully a more conservative “tone” was factored into guidance provided last week. The release stated “As part of this assessment of internal control over financial reporting, the Company has determined that the tone at the top of the organization and the performance-based environment at the Company, where challenging targets were set and achieving those targets was a key performance expectation, may have been contributing factors resulting in the Company’s improper revenue recognition and the conduct described above.” Although CEO Mike Pearson issued the guidance last week, we hope it reflected the board’s interest in more conservative leadership.
We think a new CEO is unlikely to take the helm until after the 10K is issued; the job will be an extremely challenging one. We assume that whomever Valeant is considering to be its new CEO will want to wait for the 10K for greater financial, business, and investigation clarity. The job will be a challenging one because Valeant has completed over 200 acquisitions since Mike Pearson took over as CEO in 2008. New leadership will have to address a wide range of problems involving the company’s culture, managed care customer relationships, debt, investigations, and lawsuits. In addition, we believe a new CEO may want to invest more on Valeant’s income statement in R&D, which currently stands at just 4% of sales. Based on the March 21 press release, we expect current CEO Pearson to remain in his role until a new CEO is named.
Divestitures to accelerate debt paydown TBD. Pearson stated on the March 15 earnings call that Valeant intended to divest non-core assets — a strategy we agree with. However, Bill Ackman (who just took a seat on the Board) previously raised the notion of selling part of Bausch & Lomb, one of Valeant’s main assets. On March 8 Bloomberg quoted Ackman, “Bausch & Lomb is a very valuable standalone business and some day — if Valeant chose to — they could sell a piece of that to pay down their debt.” At this time it is impossible to predict what Valeant will divest, for what price, and to what degree it will impact EPS. But we hope that dilutive effects and the impact on future growth prospects will be limited.
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Finally I recommend to review the press release the company has issued today:
Valeant Announces CEO Succession Plan And Changes To Board Of Directors; Provides Accounting And Financial Reporting Update
Mar 21, 2016, 08:58 ET from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
Initiates Search for New CEO; J. Michael Pearson to Remain as CEO Until Successor is Named
William A. Ackman Joins Board of Directors; Katharine B. Stevenson Steps Down from Board
Ad Hoc Committee Review of Accounting and Financial Reporting Matters Nearing Completion
Valeant Plans Restatement Based on Previously Announced Misstatements
Valeant Explains Circumstances that Resulted in Delay in the Filing of 10-K
LAVAL, Quebec, March 21, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE: VRX) (TSX: VRX) today announced that it has initiated a search for a new chief executive officer, appointed William A. Ackman to its board of directors, and provided an update on certain accounting and financial reporting matters.
CEO Search
Valeant today announced that the board has initiated a search to identify a candidate to succeed J. Michael Pearson as chief executive officer. Mr. Pearson will continue to serve as CEO and a director until his replacement is appointed.
Robert Ingram, chairman of the board, stated, “While the past few months have been difficult, Valeant has a collection of leading brands, valuable franchises and great people, and I am confident that the company will be able to rebuild its reputation and thrive under new leadership. We thank Mike for his dedicated service to Valeant and for agreeing to stay on until we conclude our search. As a colleague and a friend he will be missed, and we wish him the best for the future.”
“It’s been a privilege to lead Valeant for the past eight years,” said J. Michael Pearson, chief executive officer. “While I regret the controversies that have adversely impacted our business over the past several months, I know that Valeant is a strong and resilient company, and I am committed to doing everything I can to ensure a smooth transition to new leadership.”
Changes to Board of Directors
Valeant today announced that William A. Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., will join its board of directors, effective immediately. Mr. Ackman, whose firm has a 9.0% stake in Valeant, will join Pershing Square’s Vice Chairman, Stephen Fraidin, on the board. As the maximum size of Valeant’s board currently is fixed at 14 directors, Katharine B. Stevenson voluntarily resigned from the Board to create a vacancy to permit Mr. Ackman’s appointment. The Board requested that former chief financial officer Howard Schiller tender his resignation as a director, but Mr. Schiller has not done so.
Robert Ingram, chairman of the board said, “We look forward to Bill Ackman’s perspective and contributions as a new member of our board and one of Valeant’s largest shareholders. The Board thanks our valued colleague, Kate, for her service on our Board and for voluntarily offering to step down in order to allow Bill Ackman to join the Board.”
William A. Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, said, “I am looking forward to working with the board to identify new leadership for Valeant. The company’s large scale and dominant franchises in eye care, dermatology, GI, and other therapeutic areas coupled with its extraordinarily low valuation present a spectacular opportunity for a world-class health care executive. On behalf of all shareholders, we are extremely appreciative of Valeant employees’ hard work and commitment during this challenging time for the company.”
Accounting and Financial Reporting Update
As previously disclosed, on February 22, 2016, based on the work of an ad hoc committee of the Board (the “Ad Hoc Committee”) established to review allegations regarding the company’s relationship with Philidor and related matters, as well as additional work and analysis by the company, the company preliminarily determined that approximately $58 million in net revenue relating to sales to Philidor in the second half of 2014 should not have been recognized upon delivery of product to Philidor.
Management of the company, the Audit and Risk Committee (the “Committee”) and the Board have concluded that the company’s audited financial statements for the year ended, and unaudited financial statements for the quarter ended, December 31, 2014 included in the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K and the unaudited financial statements included in the company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 should no longer be relied upon due to the misstatements described in the company’s Form 8-K filed today. In addition, due to the fact that the first quarter 2015 results are included within the financial results for the six-month period included in the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2015 and the financial results for the nine-month period included in the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2015, management, the Committee and the Board have concluded that the financial statements for such six-month and nine-month periods reflected in those Quarterly Reports should no longer be relied upon.
The company is in the process of restating the affected financial statements and the restated financial statements will be included in the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, which the company intends to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Regulators on or before April 29, 2016. The company believes that after giving effect to the restatement, it will have remained in compliance with all of the financial maintenance covenants in its credit facility at the end of each affected quarterly period.
Robert Ingram, chairman of the board and chair of the Ad Hoc Committee stated, “Over the past five months, the Ad Hoc Committee has worked closely with our independent advisors to conduct a comprehensive review of Philidor and related matters. While the Ad Hoc Committee is still reviewing certain accounting related items, and has identified certain concerns related to those items with respect to the tone of the organization, it has not identified any additional items affecting the financial statements to date.”
Impact of Misstatements
As described in the company’s Form 8-K filed today, the company has identified misstatements to date that would reduce previously reported fiscal year 2014 revenue by approximately $58 million, net income attributable to Valeant by approximately $33 million, and basic and diluted earnings per share by $.09. A substantial part of the earnings impact of these misstatements will reverse in the first quarter of 2015. The company has identified misstatements in the first quarter of 2015, consisting primarily of the reversing effect on earnings of the 2014 misstatements, which would reduce revenue by approximately $21 million (timing of recognition of managed care rebates), increase net income attributable to Valeant by approximately $24 million and increase basic and diluted earnings per share by $.07. These adjustments are preliminary, unaudited and subject to change.
We refer you to the company’s Form 8-K filed today for a more detailed description of the restatement.
Assessment of Disclosure Controls and Procedures and Internal Controls Over Financial Reporting
As a result of the restatement, management is continuing to assess the company’s disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting. Management, in consultation with the committee, has concluded that one or more material weaknesses exist in the company’s internal control over financial reporting and that, as a result, internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of December 31, 2014 and disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of March 31, 2015 and the subsequent interim periods in 2015 and that internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures will not be effective at December 31, 2015.
The improper conduct of the company’s former Chief Financial Officer and former Corporate Controller, which resulted in the provision of incorrect information to the Committee and the company’s auditors, contributed to the misstatement of results. In addition, as part of this assessment of internal control over financial reporting, the company has determined that the tone at the top of the organization and the performance-based environment at the company, where challenging targets were set and achieving those targets was a key performance expectation, may have been contributing factors resulting in the company’s improper revenue recognition.
In connection with the Ad Hoc Committee’s work to date, certain remediation actions have been recommended and are being implemented by the company, including placing the company’s former Corporate Controller on administrative leave. The board and the talent and compensation committee, based on recommendations of the Ad Hoc Committee, have determined that the deficient control environment, among other things, would impact executive compensation decisions with respect to 2015 compensation for certain members of senior management. The company is in the process of implementing additional remedial measures.
Circumstances that Resulted in Delay in the Filing of 10-K
Valeant announced on October 30, 2015 that the Ad Hoc Committee appointed former Deputy Attorney General of the United States, Mark Filip of Kirkland & Ellis LLP, to advise the committee in its review. Over the past five months, Mr. Filip and his colleagues at Kirkland & Ellis have conducted more than 70 interviews and reviewed over one million documents as part of their comprehensive review to assist the Ad Hoc Committee. In addition to certain Philidor-related accounting matters, the Ad Hoc Committee determined that certain other accounting issues required review. That additional work, along with the administrative leave of our former Corporate Controller, has led to the delayed filing of Valeant’s 10-K.
J. Michael Pearson, CEO of Valeant, said, “While we regret the circumstances that have resulted in the delay of our 10-K filing, we are committed to filing the 10-K on or before April 29, 2016.”
Covenant Highlights
Bond indentures:
As discussed on its March 15, 2016 preliminary earnings call, Valeant could receive a notice of default under its bond indentures as a result of the delay in filing its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015.
If such notice is received, Valeant has 60 days from the receipt of the notice to file its 10-K, which will cure the default in all respects. The notice does not result in the acceleration of any of Valeant’s indebtedness.
Credit agreement:
If Valeant does not file its Form 10-K by March 30, 2016, there will be a default under the credit facility. The company will have 30 days, or until April 29, to cure this default by filing its Form 10-K.
Valeant expects to file its Form 10-K and become current on its financial filings by April 29, 2016 (within the curing period) but to be prudent, the company also announced that it intends to seek a waiver from the lenders under its credit facility. The waiver that the company is seeking will include a request to extend the deadline to file its Form 10-K for December 31, 2015 and the deadline to file its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2016.
Robert L. Rosiello, Valeant’s Chief Financial Officer, said, “I appreciate the dedication and effort of our finance staff, who are working diligently to complete and file our 10-K.”
Delay in Canadian Annual Filings
Valeant announced today that it anticipates a delay in filing its audited annual financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2015, the related management’s discussion and analysis, certificates of its CEO and CFO and its 2015 Form 10-K (collectively, the “Canadian Required Filings”) with Canadian securities regulators until after the March 30, 2016 filing deadline. The company is working diligently and intends to make the Canadian Required Filings on or before April 29, 2016.
In connection with this anticipated delay, the company will apply for a customary management cease trade order (the “MCTO”) relating to the trading in securities of the company by the company’s CEO and CFO and each other member of the company’s board of directors from the Autorité des marchés financiers, the company’s principal regulator in Canada. If granted, the MCTO should not affect the ability of other shareholders to trade in the securities of the company.
If the MCTO is granted, the company intends to comply with the provisions of the alternative information guidelines set out in Canadian National Policy 12-203 Cease Trade Orders for Continuous Disclosure Defaults (“NP 12-203”) by providing bi-weekly updates by way of news release until the Canadian Required Filings have been made.
Mr. William A. Ackman
Mr. Ackman is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Pershing Square Capital Management. Mr. Ackman currently serves as a member of the board of Canadian Pacific Railway Limited, chairman of the board of The Howard Hughes Corporation, a trustee of the Pershing Square Foundation, a member of the Board of Trustees at The Rockefeller University and a member of the Board of Dean’s Advisors of the Harvard Business School. Mr. Ackman holds an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and a Bachelor of Arts magna cum laude from Harvard College.
About Valeant
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE/TSX:VRX) is a multinational specialty pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of pharmaceutical products primarily in the areas of dermatology, gastrointestinal disorder, eye health, neurology and branded generics. More information about Valeant can be found at www.valeant.com.
Forward-looking Statements
This press release may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements regarding Valeant’s Board of Directors. Forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “may,” “will,” “believes,” “estimates,” “potential,” “target,” or “continue” and variations or similar expressions. These statements are based upon the current expectations and beliefs of management and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties discussed in the company’s most recent annual or quarterly report and detailed from time to time in Valeant’s other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators, which factors are incorporated herein by reference. In addition, as the Ad Hoc Committee has not concluded its work, there remains a possibility that additional accounting adjustments may be identified that further impact prior periods and additional remediation actions may be recommended. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof. Valeant undertakes no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release or to reflect actual outcomes, unless required by law.
The Hidroelectrica energy company, has awarded the Deloitte consultancy company a EUR 382,000 contract for financial audit services spanning the 31 December 2015 – 31 December 2017 period, including services related to floatation.
“The objective of the contract consists of financial audit services. The audit reports will be issued in Romanian, and the IFRS consolidated reports in English too (each of them in four copies), on paper, and will be transmitted in electronic form too. The annual audit reports will be accompanied by a letter from the company’s leadership,” the announcement points out.
In 2015, Hidroelectrica registered a gross profit of RON 1.1 bln., 3.5 times higher than the one registered in 2010. The company’s turnover stood at RON 3.18 bln, while its production totalled 15.9 TWh, down by 2.5 TWh compared to 2014, back when Hidroelectrica reported a production of 18.4 TWh, a turnover of RON 3.4 bln and a profit of RON 1.15 bln.
According to Remus Borza, 2016 has all the premises for this large state-owned company to meet all conditions in order to be listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB). Borza told us that the floatation of a shares package of 15 per cent will most likely start in November.
Hidroelectrica is owned by Romanian State and Fondul Proprietatea. Fondul Proprietatea is one of the largest investments by Elliot Associates managed by activist investor Paul Singer.
Exerpt from Wood and Co research on Romania published 28/1/2016
We believe that the Fund should remain an attractive investment:
Fondul Propreitatea trades at 36% discount to NAV, with the stock price having fallen over 13% in the past six months, due mostly to the prices of Petrom and Romgaz (together accounting for 38% of the portfolio) having declined in line with the prices of oil and gas. According to our estimates, the declining oil and gas prices are already priced in for the two companies. Thus, we believe that the Fund should remain an attractive investment from the point of view of further upcoming corporate actions, such as the continuation of the buyback and an eventual acceleration, the payment of a special dividend (already approved, a 6.8% yield), the listing of Hidroelectrica (expected by the end of the year), and the potential sale of minority stakes in Electrica’s subsidiaries to Electrica’s mother company (announcement expected by the end of March).
ALROSA remains our favored exposure in the Russia M&M space, but the diamond market is not out of the woods just yet. A combination of decent US holiday sales, rough diamond producers’ supply discipline, and increasing polished prices has moved the diamond market towards rebalancing (EMEA – Diamonds: The PIPE – diamond intel). We also welcome the increasing efforts towards generic marketing. All this should increase confidence that ALROSA can increase sales volumes throughout 2016 and improve cash flow generation by reducing inventory accumulation. ALROSA also remains among the biggest beneficiaries from recent RUB weakness. Our key concern is that supply discipline seems to have somewhat relaxed in January: De Beers’ January trading session ($580m) seems large, even in light of the positive dynamics described above. While this might signal that inventory levels in the midstream are lower than expected and/or that rough diamond demand is higher than originally thought, we need to see continued modest growth in end-user demand for diamond jewellery to be confident that the market has rebalanced. This is all the more true if the speculated 5-7% price reduction was realized (De Beers did not comment), as this would mark a shift from De Beers’ strategy in 3Q-4Q15 (price over volume).
Some mild upside to our estimates as 4Q15 operational results better than we expected, but still showing some supply discipline. We see some upside risk to our 4Q15 revenues and FCF estimates as ALROSA reported higher than expected sales volumes (4.1mcts of gem-quality diamonds vs. our expectation of 3.4mcts) and a higher than expected revenue per carat (impacted by improved mix YoY: $166/ct for gem-quality diamonds vs. our expectation of $158/ct). ALROSA in fact guides for at least $3.4bn of revenue in FY15 from rough diamond sales, vs. our estimate of $3.28bn. Nonetheless, ALROSA showed continued supply discipline, by selling less than it produced and accumulating another 1.5mcts of inventory in 4Q15 (vs. our expectation of 2.9mcts) to 22.5mcts, up from 14.3mcts at YE14.
No guidance provided for 2016. Back in December, ALROSA stated it was looking to sell $3.5bn worth of rough diamonds in 2016, higher than our estimate of $2.95bn.
Valuation: on spot FX (and assuming ALROSA does not reduce prices) ALROSA trades on 12% FCF yield for 2016 and 33% for 2017, when we assume the market will rebalance and ALROSA will sell its entire production. This puts shares on 6.1x P/E for 2016 and 4.7x for 2017, a 40-70% discount to Norilsk Nickel.
| FY15 | FY14 | % YoY | 4Q15e | 3Q15 | % QoQ | 4Q14 | % YoY | MSe (4Q15e) | vs. MSe | |
| Diamond output volumes (mcts) | 38.3 | 36.2 | 6% | 8.6 | 11.6 | -26% | 10.6 | -18% | 8.5 | 1% |
| Grade (cts/t) | 1.03 | 1.01 | 2% | 1.17 | 0.86 | 36% | 1.45 | -19% | 1.33 | -12% |
| Total Diamond sales volumes (mcts) | 30.0 | 39.6 | -24% | 7.1 | 4.9 | 45% | 10.8 | -34% | 5.6 | 27% |
| Gem quality diamond sales volumes (mcts) | 19.7 | 27.8 | -29% | 4.1 | 3.0 | 37% | 6.9 | -40% | 3.4 | 22% |
| % of gem-quality diamonds sold | 65.7% | 70.1% | -4pp | 57.7% | 61.2% | -3pp | 63.5% | -6pp | 60.0% | -2pp |
| Gem quality diamond revenue per carat ($/ct) | 170 | 172 | -1% | 166 | 182 | -9% | 161 | 3% | 158 | 5% |
| Average realized revenue per carat ($/ct) | 115 | 124 | -8% | 100 | 115 | -13% | 106 | -6% | 98 | 2% |
Buy Alrosa
Gems sales rose to 7.1 million carats in October through December, the miner said on its website on Thursday. This compares with 4.9 million carats of sales in the third quarter, when Alrosa had to stockpile 58 percent of its output because of low demand and prices.
The diamond prices plunged 18 percent last year, the most since 2008. De Beers and Alrosa had to cut output and sales to let the market recover.
“The diamond industry has begun a recovery,” with De Beers’ sales also rebounding, Oleg Petropavlovskiy, an analyst at BCS Global Markets, said in a note on Tuesday. “We believe that the duopoly worked very well in the second half” with large supply cuts, and now sales will rebound he said. BCS added Alrosa to its list of most preferred shares.
based on Bloomberg article published 1/28/16
Fondul Proprietatea (Buy, RON 1.05 PT, 31% upside)
NAV at the end of November stands at RON 1.1074, the discount to NAV is at 27.2%.
What are the catalysts for the discount to NAV to narrow? More disposals of assets followed by cash distributions.
Asset disposals:
Cash distributions:
What are the catalysts for changes in the NAV?
Why should there be a discount to NAV:
Adding all of this together, we see the current discount to NAV as too high.
Lucian Albulescu, CFA
Equity Research
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