Xbrane Biopharma is due to lunch its first Biosimilar product by the end of the year with help of its partners Bausch and Lomb and Strada. They first need to announce the Phase 3 results. In November, they announced that they will have their Phase 3 results available in May. Today they announced a capital markets day for May 17. I would assume that they would be talking about the Phase 3. What else is there to talk about.
- What we know: They are getting their Phase 3 study results gradually. We know that the last patient was recruited in November, the study takes 6 months, therefore the last results should be available in May.
- Investor day vs press release – in my experience, when companies want to announce a big good news, they do investor day. If they are about to announce bad news, they do press release. You rarely announce a bad news on an investor day.
- Implications – If the above is correct, I believe that today´s announcement could indicate that the Phase 3 results are positive and that the good news would be announced on that day. Of course there is a risk. If you look at Biosimilars – XBrane on their web, they show a graph that biosimilars have a Phase 3 success rate of 78%. I believe that the today´s XBrane capital day announcement brings this number well above 90%.
I first recommended buying Xbrane on 2 March 2021. The share price was around 90 NOK. Today it reached 105NOK . 16% gain in one month. I believe that the share price should be trading at least at double by the end of this year.
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