BIOVICA – Trade for the next quarter

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In mid April 2021 I wrote about XBrane for the first time. I recomended the investment based on the below thesis. At that time Xbrane was trading around 78 SEK. I sold today part of my holdings at 145 SEK. The idea generated 85% return over less than two months, which is over 500% annualised return.

Xbrane Partners With Bausch & Lomb To Enter USD 12 Billion Market | Seeking Alpha

The reason for the share price growth was the imminent announcement of Phase 3 results. These shares always perform well prior to such important announcements. It traded so well that I started reducing my position, because I am concerned, that the stock went up so much, that we may have a sell the fact situation. The share price could drop significantly even on the positive announcement. Even if it does not fall, the company may raise additional capital, which may push the share price down. So if you have generated good return, it may be a time to consider taking some money off the table.

There is a very similar situation boiling. Biovica International. It is due to announce the FDA approval during the 3Q21 – within three months or so from now. As with Xbrane, the share price should start reacting before the announcement. My base case is that the share price should double by that time.

The company is hosting Investor day on JUne 9. – see the Press Releases – Biovica

The company has an extensive clinical validation in collaboration world leading cancer centers for its cancer product:

  • 22 studies with peer-reviewed publications – 2,867 patients
  • 10 ongoing studies in collaboration with Johns Hopkins, Mayo Clinic, SWOG and more

The product has been submitted for FDA approval that is due to be received during 3Q21. The company should start performing well. In my experience the share prices of such companies go up before the investor day (9 June) and before the major announcement (FDA approval in Q3). The stock already started moving from mid May. I would expect this to accelerate in early June before the Investor day. I expect furthe share price growth during the Q3 before the announcement. I have a medium size position in Biovica. The current share price is 41 SEK, Pareto has a price target of 103 SEK.

The link to presentation:

PowerPoint Presentation (hemsida.eu)

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