Quantafuel trade for the next month – 100% upside vs 10% downside

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On the Q1 presentation Quantafuel management stated, that they should have a continues production by the end of Q2. That is in two weeks or so. They said it only a month ago on 14/5/21. They gave themselves quite a short deadline, so they must have known they are very close. It would be irrational to be wrong. Do watch their Q1 call available from their website. Definitely worth spent 33 minutes.

On May 19 they posted on their FB page, which further reduces the risk of delay:

Curious to see what is going on at our plant in Skive, Denmark? Here, we have built the first, and to our knowledge, the only fully automated and continuous process plant transforming mixed waste plastic into high quality products. We are convinced that this approach is essential in our strategy to become the market leader within chemical recycling of plastic! 🌍💚♻️Last week, we were able to reach full line production capacity of 625 kg per hour in a controlled and stable process. Now we are focusing on increasing operational uptime at high production capacity into weeks, and then months. Watch this space!

I think there are two scenarios:

  • If they announce continues production, the share price should double back to 70-80 NOK where it was a few months ago.
  • If they delay the share price would retreat back to mid 30s SEK.

This presents quite a favorable risk return – 100% upside vs 10% downside. We have a large position in Quantafuel to benefit from this.

Other opportunities:

  • I wrote here several times about Xbrane. I started when the share price was about 75 SEK. It is about 175 SEK today, two months later. I am reducing my position every day. The announcement on Phase 3 results could come any day. Based on the very strong performance I am concerned that the positive announcement will generate sell the fact situation. The risk return is becoming unfavorable. I am switching to Biovica. It is the same situation as Xbrane. I believe Biovica will double in the next three months before their FDA approval due by end of Q3. Read for more details my previous post

Freyer announced yesterday, that they will have a shareholder meeting at the end of June. The SPACs usually move before the shareholder meeting, as the main backers wants to get the deal approved. The SPAC now trades at its redemption value, so again there is very favorable risk return for two weeks investment horizon.

I am very bullish on restructured rig owners Valaris and Noble. Both have been deleveraged and IPOed again. It is early days and they trade at big discount to the unrestructured peers. There is DNB call on this today at 17.00, if you have account at DNB, do register and do listen.


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  1. J Alger says:

    This hasn’t aged well. How did they mess this up so badly? Do you still have your position?


    1. I have the position in full. I spoke to Dr. Lach two weeks ago. He was very bullish. Look at the post Minutes of the meeting with the managemnt from abou two weeks ago. I would not sell at these prices. Considering buying more.


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