Biovica – FDA approval in Q3, commercionalisation in Q4

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In mid April 2021 I wrote about XBrane for the first time. At that time Xbrane was trading around 78 SEK, it is 170 SEK today.

The reason for the share price growth was the imminent announcement of Phase 3 results and very high likelihood of positive outcome (97% for biosimilars). These shares always perform well prior to such important announcements. I started reducing my position, because we may have a sell the fact situation. The share price could drop significantly even on the positive announcement. Further, the company need to raise additional capital, which may push the share price down. It may be a time to consider taking some money off the table.

There is a very similar situation boiling. Biovica International. It is due to announce the FDA approval during the 3Q21 – within three months from now. As with Xbrane, there is very low likelihood of failure, as BIovica has 12 studies that its product work with the most prominent US hospitals (Stanford, Mayo, Cleveland, etc) , As with Xbrane, the share price should start reacting before the announcement. My base case is that the share price should double by that time, as it did in Xbrane.

Materials for the further reading on the opportunity:

There were two brokers research publicly available now:

ABG Research:

Introduce.se – Biovica – Take-aways from Capital Markets Day

Redeye Research

Biovica: DiviTum to Stir Some Blood (redeye.se)

Calendar

17 June, 21 – Interim Report Q4 2020/2021 – the company is reporting tomorrow its (its financial year ends in April)

Q3 – announcement of FDA approva

Q4 – commercialization

Shareholding

Another positive of the story is management 18.4% stake in the company. They are in it with us. I am long Biovica.

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