Quantafuel – analyst research summary

I looked through the research published today. The main points can be summarized as follows:

  • Skive reconstruction is on schedule, no delay and no change of costs guidance
  • Proof of concept expected around the year end – just a few weeks away
  • All four Skive four lines in full operation in 2Q22
  • Skive should be cash flow positive in 2022
  • Kristiansund mechanical recycling plant with capacity 20kt should start operations in December 2021 – should generate positive cashflow in 2022
  • QFUEL as whole cash flow positive in 22
  • Upon proof of concept QFUEL expects to progress on the big plants with its strategic partners.
  • First mega plant most likely with Vitol in Amsterdam

I below select parts from different research reports that I found interesting

Fearnley

Going forward, QFUEL is targeting a positive cash flow from operations by end 2022, driven by Skive capacity target of 12kt to a total of 20kt plastic waste processed next year. QFUEL guides Skive to deliver NOK 80m in EBITDA p.a. at full capacity, and the mechanical line at Kristiansund NOK 25m p.a. at new target capacity of 20kt.

Pareto

Upon proof of concept, Quantafuel states that it is ready to roll out the announced projects. Initially, this refers to the project in Amsterdam together with Vitol and VTTI, in UK and in Esbjerg. Quantafuel experiences increasing payments for taking plastic waste and sales prices significantly above its budgets. In addition, it comments that product quality continues to be in line with BASF offtake agreement. However, modifications will be made to new plants to yield the future BASF target production specifications as Skive was built to maximize the output initial partner Vitol wanted (low carbon diesel vs naphtha for BASF).

In sum, positive that the company seem confident in reaching proof-of-concept in only weeks

ABG Sundal Collier

The product produced at Skive is in line with the current offtake agreement with BASF, but it also states that the future BASF naptha spec is stricter and will require further process development (not on Skive but future plants). Remaining capex is NOK ~145m vs NOK 70m in Q2,explained by the announced investment in the Aalborg sorting facility and additional mechanical sorting capacity in Kristiansund. It has NOK 379m in cash at quarter end. It provides some more detailed financial guidance, incl stating to have positive cash flow from operations as it exits  ’22. This means it could have NOK ~0.2bn in cash by YE’22 excluding additional growth capex. It has added the UK/Sunderland plant to its roll-out plan and states it expects to start construction on the sorting part of Esbjerg mid’22 subject to financing and with partner discussions ongoing.

Very good summary in the press article

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/11/11/10704674/quantafuel-expects-to-reach-positive-cashflow-in-2022-updates-on-project-progress?fbclid=IwAR1GYygo9aFoM7v-w3nop4SNRBUR88l8YyziitGsjCwCiBzn2ufppO6bSCs

My take

If the company manages to deliver proof of concept, there is a lot of news-flow on the big plans in the next months. I believe the share price could easily regain this year highs within a few quarters. Very attractive risk reward

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

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