Biovica – our doubling candidate is reporting tomorrow

I have been long Biovica (BIOVIC) for some time. The thesis has been delayed by the FDA approval delay due to FDA Covid congestion. Many retail investors lost patience. The stock is down, but the thesis is unchanged. One or two months delay should not affect the value of the company. FDA Covid-caused FDA congestion should not impact the value. FDA related 50% sell off is an opportunity. We have been buyers.

Current status

Biovica is waiting for a feedback from the FDA on last open issues. That could come any day now. After that they will submit updated application, which should result in FDA approval. The base case is that this should still happen this year. For the value of the stock, it is not relevant, if that happens two weeks or two months later. The relevant issue are:

  1. The likelihood of the FDA approval is very high – Pareto gives this 95% probability.
  2. After the FDA approval the share price should re-rate strongly
  3. There will be further material catalysts right after approval – mainly the imminent start of the US sales and agreement on reimbursement with US insurers (expected within two months of the approval)
  4. In 2022 Biovica will file application for other cancer tests
  5. I spoke to the analysts, they believe that next year Biovica could become a takeover target.
  6. Redeye has a bullish scenario over 300 SEK. It is not unrealistic, that we could see this share price value next year

I believe Biovica offers very attractive risk/reward in Scandinavian Healthcare. The share price should at least double after FDA approval and potentially multiply further next year. If you doubled your money playing Xbrane with me, this ride might be even better.

Biovica is reporting on 1/12/2021. The link to webcast is below:

Detail investment thesis:

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The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

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