Our favorite Macro analyst AndreasStenoLarsen recently left Nordea. He was yesterday on RealVision. Recommended, His main points are:
- inflation will disappoint this year – will be lower than mkt expects now
- inflation expectations are highly correlated to changes in oil price
- US 10 year yield should be peaking soon – at some point this year long bonds will be the place to be
- EURUSD expects to go to 1.05
- credit spreads are too low, HY could be one of the victims of the market unfolding
- I would be careful about sectors that are clearly overweight right now, banks, energy – sectors like that. if we see QT into slowing economy, investors will be leaving the sectors in favor of less risky companies such as pharma
- I would start planning now to rotate my equities to less risky and more defensive sectors
- I would be super short industrial commodities. There is a strong correlation between credit creation and industrial commodities. As soon as you withdraw credit, which is about to happen, it would influence industrial commodities
- Russia, Brazil and other countries linked to the cycle will be affected.
- you are not afraid of political risk of being long China, this might be a good trade
- I am US long bonds and USD
The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.