Ukraine – Trading Ideas

This is a third installment on ideas how am I protecting my portfolio against the Russia War against Ukraine. Last week I sold my coal holdings at around 50% gain over two weeks. I bought arm producers last week. I am holding my palladium and shipping positions. I increased substantially my oil holdings in down days.

I strongly oppose what Russia is doing in Ukraine. We have donated to People in Need foundation, that is one of the biggest humanitarian aid distributors in Ukraine. Please consider joining:

https://www.peopleinneed.net/donate/once

We also donated money to Ukraine embassy so that Ukraine can buy arms to defend itself against Russian aggression. Please consider looking at the Ukraine embassy website in your country to help.

In the first installment I wrote about my first trading ideas on Russia war. I bought coal miners JSW and TGA. I sold last week. JSW was excellent trade, bought at average of 40 PLN, sold between 68-75PLN. TGA was good as well. I remain believer in coal (due to EU need to diversify away from Russia gas) and want to reenter the positions on a down day.

I reported on buying mishandled IPO of Coolco, a LNG shipping carrier. The blackout ended today, first research published. More research reports in the coming days. CoolCo should benefit from EU´s diversification of its gas supplies. They will try to get more gas from non-Russian producers. That should help to push the the rates up. Pareto wrote today:

LNGC: Cool Co. rumored to have fixed TFDE for 1Y TC at USD 120k/day
Cool Company is rumored (not confirmed) to have chartered out a vessel on a 1Y TC at USD 120k/day to Polish LNG importer PGNiG. COOL has eight 2013
– 15 built TFDEs, which means no matter which vessel (‘Golar Bear’ rumored)
the deal would mark a significant step-up from the USD 95k/day brokers were
quoting on Friday for TFDEs

CoolCo is trading today at around 81 NOK. My price target is 120-130 NOK.

I bought last two weeks oil positions in AKERBP and Africa Oil. Both in substance an oil plays – speculating on Russia reduced deliveries. I was buying AKERBP around 276-285 NOK and Africa oil at 17.5 NOK. I will be buying more on weakness.

I bought several arm producers last week, namely RTX, KOG, BA, LDO, RHM and LOM. The share prices did not move much, I am 5-10% in profit. The rationale is – Germany already announced doubling of their defense budget. So did Denmark. All EU countries will do. These companies should be the beneficiaries based on my research. I am doing more digging in the area and want to increase my exposure in this area.

After conversations with QFUEL management, brokers and some large investors, I am very bullish QFUEL. For QFUEL war is not positive, so it does not fully fit into this blog post. But I find it very attractive both short term and long term trade, that should work even despite the war.

Last time market believed Proof of Concept was at sight the company was trading above 70 NOK. QFUEL has made a great technological progress since, but trades below 20 NOK. The risk reward is very attractive in my view. I like the CEO bought shares last week. I am in the market too.

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

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