Linkfire – Record Quarter from Danish IPO of the Year

LInkfire delivered 51% revenue growth in Q1. Linkfire is below radar screens of most investors. In our view great opportunity. Linkfire provides smart links that lead consumers from social media to streaming platforms. Amazon Music, Apple Music and other pay Linkfire to bring consumers to their platforms. Linkfire is our top pick in the area.

Competition in the streaming industry is increasing. Linkfire is the prime tool for the streaming companies to increase their market share. Deal with Amazon Music was announced two weeks ago. we expect further deals with the majors this year.

Pareto Securities summary

Strong start to the year for Linkfire
Linkfire delivered a strong Q1’22 report, beating our topline estimates by ~13% and achieving a y/y revenue growth of ~46%, on a constant currency basis, and 51% on a recognized revenue basis, helped by the strong USD. Particularly impressive was the RPM, which grew 38% y/y and came in at DKK 9.52, Linkfire’s highest quarterly number ever, as well as the consumer connections, which grew 36% y/y to 481m (354m). We have a Buy recommendation on Linkfire with a TP of SEK 10, and expect to make some minor upward revisions to our estimates and expect a positive share price reaction today following the report.    

Highlights for the quarter:  
– Linkfire increased its revenue by 46% y/y, on a constant currency basis and 51% on a recognized revenue basis, helped by the strong USD. smartURL, which was acquired in the beginning of Q1’22, had no significant impact to the topline in the quarter, and Linkfire is currently working on integrating the company and its traffic flows, and will come out with an update on how that is proceeding next quarter

– Revenue, on a constant currency basis, came in at DKK 11,1m (7.6m), which was ~13% higher than PAS at DKK 9.8m

– Subscription revenue grew from DKK 5.2m to DKK 6.6m (26% y/y), while commission revenue remained the main growth driver, growing from DKK 2.4m to DKK 4.6m (88% y/y), with both beating our estimates

– One of the key highlights from the quarter was the RPM, which grew by 38% y/y and came in at DKK 9.52 (DKK 6.87), which was the highest quarterly RPM in Linkfire’s history 

– It was also promising to see consumer connections kicking off to a strong start in 2022, growing by 36% y/y to 481m (354m)

– EBITDA came in slightly lower than we had expected, driven by greater staff costs and slightly higher other external expenses

– The company remains confident in its mid-term target of 50-70% organic revenue growth and a gross margin of 80% as well as its FY2022 financial guidance DKK 50-60m in revenue with an EBITDA of between DKK -22 and -32m

– Following the report, we expect a positive share price reaction, as Linkfire showed that it is on good track to reach its financial guidance for FY2022          

Biovica presentation at ABS conference

Biovica is starting to move prior to FDA approval. Up 10% today. Could easily double before the FDA approval in late JUne. That would be normal pattern for similar Scandi pharma stocks. See my posts here on Xbrane where we doubled our money.

We are very bullish on Biovica. Based on Broker analyst conversations, we believe the FDA approval for their innovative cancer test should happen by end of June. The reason for this timing estimate is that Biovica submitted last piec of information that th FDA wanted in May.

Do watch the video from ABG Sundal Collier conference on 24/5/2022:


Hydrogen

The Russian agression will accelerate energy transition. We have two exposures in hydrogen – Fusion Fuel and HydrogenPro. interesting article Fusion Fuel was published today on SeekingAlpha:

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

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