How to Trade Putin’s Call For Scrapping Ukraine Grain Sea Export Agreement

Putin has threatened to turn away from a deal agreed earlier this year that allowed the export of agricultural products from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to resume. He called the deal Scam. “It may be worth considering how to limit (food exports) along this line” the Putin stated.

“UN data shows that from 87 cargoes, 57 went to non EU countries including China, Egypt, India, Iran, Lebanon and Turkey.” FT reported. Basically Putin is lying.

“Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan echoed Vladimir Putin’s criticism of a grain deal that he helped to broker between Moscow and Kyiv, as he vowed to discuss the issue with the Russian leader at an upcoming summit.” was the news on FT just a moment ago.

Ukraine forces seem to be advancing pushing Russian troops away from their territory. Russia called for UN security council meeting to stop arms exports to Ukraine two days ago. Strange act by an agresor.

We may see some actions from Russia against EU. Stoping grain export would cause food crises in poor countries, which would result in migrant exodus to the EU. That could destabilise EU political situation. My base case is that Russia will stop Ukraine sea grain exports. We bought Wheat ETF (ticker WEAT). The ETF is down 50% since the exports were restarted. This indicates the upside.

We remain long LNG tankers COOL and GLNG. They are the beneficiaries of the Russian gas blackmail. We are up 50% on the positions in a few months and believe in plenty further upside.

We remain long product tankers through HAFNIA. We increase our position today in the block trade and also bought more on today weakness. Russia is the major producer of diesel for Europe. The diesel will stop flowing from Russia in December. Product tankers should benefit.

We also bought Palladium producer Sybanie (SBSW). Russia is the major palladium producer. Russia is the worlds largest palladium producer with 25-30% market share. Palladium could be next in the Russian sanction list against the West.

We are long Norway gas production through Var Energi.

Disclosure:
The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

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