GMET LN (AIM)  |  GMTL (NYSE American)

The Tungsten Play That Could Follow the MP Materials Playbook

Metric	Value
Current Price	~GBp 258 (London)  |  ~$13.50 ADS (NYSE American)
Market Cap	~£508m / ~$670m
Rating	**BULLISH
Second-Largest Shareholder	**Stanley Druckenmiller
Government Status	The only tungsten company in the world with US DPA Title III funding
Key Catalyst (imminent)	US Government decision on funding of DFS — could arrive before June 2026 PFS completion
Pilot Mountain spot EBITDA	Bernberg estimates $350–400m pa at Tungsten prices of (~$2,445/MTU)
Base-case combined NPV (5%)	$890m (~$800/MTU) vs $670m market cap
Spot combined NPV (5%)	~$4.9bn vs $670m market cap (+638%) at Tungsten prices of (~$2,445/MTU)
Commercial production target	Q3–Q4 2028

Investment Thesis

Guardian Metal Resources is the only dual-listed pure-play tungsten developer with projects on US soil, and the only tungsten company in the world to have received US government funding. It holds a confirmed $6.2m Department of War DPA Title III award, is likely seeking a materially higher second tranche for its Definitive Feasibility Study given the PFS is almost complete, and is in live discussions with both the Defense Logistics Agency — which is preparing a tungsten tender, with its stockpile facility just 35 miles from Pilot Mountain — and the Project Vault programme (direct contracts with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and other prime defence contractors). Stanley Druckenmiller is the second-largest shareholder.

Tungsten prices have hit record highs (~$3,140/MTU APT as of 22 May 2026, up from ~$320/MTU in 2022) driven by Chinese export controls, a January 2027 US defence procurement ban on Chinese-origin tungsten, and surging NATO rearmament demand. The two Nevada projects — Pilot Mountain and Tempiute — have the combined capacity to cover ~100% of US direct defence demand. At current spot prices, Pilot Mountain alone would generate $350–400m of annual EBITDA (Berenberg estimate based on ~$2,450/MTU) against a total company market cap of $670m. The key re-rating Catalyst is the potential for a much larger government funding package — potentially modelled on the DoW deal with MP Materials (NYSE: MP) in July 2025, which tripled that company’s share price. GMET, with its most important catalysts still ahead, offers asymmetric upside to that same playbook.

 

Part One: Tungsten — The Most Irreplaceable Metal You’ve Never Heard Of

Why Tungsten Matters

Tungsten is not a headline metal. It is rarely discussed in the same breath as lithium, cobalt, or rare earths. That is beginning to change — fast.

Tungsten has properties that make it functionally irreplaceable. It holds the highest melting point of any element (3,422°C), the highest boiling point (5,930°C), the highest tensile strength of any pure metal at temperatures above 1,650°C, the lowest coefficient of linear thermal expansion of all metals, and a density of 19.2 t/m³. The broadest use is industrial — tungsten carbide rods and tips in mining equipment, drill bits, cutting tools, and road-milling machines dominate volume. But it is the defence applications that have captured Washington’s attention: tungsten heavy alloy is the material of choice for kinetic energy penetrators (tank-busting rounds), armour-piercing ammunition, missile components, rocket nozzles, and radiation shielding. In December 2024, NATO designated tungsten as one of just 12 defence-critical raw materials, citing high supply risk across fighter aircraft, main battle tanks, missiles, submarines, and corvettes. The global tungsten market is worth ~$5bn pa — but the industries that depend on it are orders of magnitude larger.

Tungsten First-Use by Material (2025)

Material	Share
Tungsten carbide (cemented carbides)	~65%
Steels & superalloys (incl. jet turbine blades)	~14%
Tungsten metal products (ammunition, shielding)	~12%
Chemicals & catalysts	~9%

Tungsten End-Use by Industry (2025)

Industry	Share
Transport (automotive tooling)	~26%
Mining & construction (drill bits, road milling)	~26%
Industrial use	~14%
Chemical/petrochemical	~10%
Consumer durables	~9%
**Defence (fastest growing segment)	**~8%
Energy	~6%
Medical/pharmaceutical	~1%

The China Problem

China produces ~82% of the global tungsten mine supply. Russia and North Korea are among the other notable producers outside the Western world, making the geopolitical risk concentration acutely dangerous for the US defence supply chain. China accounts for only ~36% of global consumption, meaning the rest of the world is structurally dependent on Chinese exports.

Country	Share of Global Production
China	82%
Vietnam	4%
Russia	2%
North Korea	2%
Bolivia	2%
All others	8%

Key developments that have broken the status quo:

• February 2025: February 2025: China introduced export licensing on tungsten, citing national security. APT exports essentially ceased for several months.
• Prices: European APT rose from ~$331/MTU to (~$3,140/MTU in 14 months — a 600%+ increase to record highs.
• Supply: The US has had no commercial tungsten mining since 2015. For defence-grade products, US external dependence is effectively 100%.
• Policy: January 2027: DFARS Rule 252.225-7052 bans US military procurement of tungsten from China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran. Hard statutory deadline.

APT Price History and Outlook

Period	APT Price (USD/MTU)
FY2022A	~322
FY2023A	~326
FY2024A	~320
FY2025A	~359 → spike to ~1,230
FY2026E (Berenberg)	~1,750
FY2027E (Berenberg)	~1,350
FY2028E (Berenberg)	~1,000
**Spot (22 May 2026)	**~3,140

 

Part Two: The MP Materials Playbook — and Why Tungsten Might Be Next

What MP Materials Proved

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is the operator of Mountain Pass in California. Despite its strategic importance, the stock spent years around $15–30 as a commodity miner with a Chinese offtake partner (Shenghe Resources). Critically, MP received its first government funding — around $4m — from the exact same DPA Title III Office that has now funded Guardian Metal’s initial $6.2m award. The pattern that followed is the template Guardian is now tracking:

• MP Step 1: ~$4m initial DPA Title III grant (same office as Guardian’s $6.2m).
• MP Step 2: ~$9.6m second DPA Title III grant
• MP Step 3:~$35m DoD contract
• MP Step 4: Then: $400m DoD preferred equity investment (15% stake), $150m loan, 10-year price floor at $110/kg NdPr, 10-year offtake, termination of Chinese offtake.
• MP Result: Stock +50% on day one. +224% for the full year 2025. Market cap added ~$6–7bn

Perpetual Resources received a first grant of $6m from the same DPA Title III Office, and subsequently received a $1 billion loan. The pattern is consistent: a small initial grant establishes recipient status, followed by transformational follow-on capital.

Government Investment Comparison

Company	Mineral	Initial Grant	Follow-on	Stock Reaction
MP Materials	Rare Earths	~$4m (DPA Title III)	$400m equity + $150m loan	+50% day 1, +224% full year
Perpetual Resources	Critical Minerals	~$6m (DPA Title III)	~$1bn loan	Material re-rating
Trilogy Metals (TMQ)	Copper/Cobalt	—	$35.6m DoD equity (10%).	+211% day 1, +402% 2 weeks
Lithium Americas (LAC)	Lithium	$2.26bn DOE loan	5% equity conversion	+21.5% on equity stake
**Guardian Metal (GMET)	**Tungsten	**$6.2m (DPA Title III)	Step 2 DFS funding sought	+405% in 2025 — pre follow-on

* Step 2 funding for MP Materials was 150% of the Step 1 funding. We would expect at least similar increase

Why Tungsten Is the Next Priority

Statutory deadline. The January 2027 DFARS ban creates a hard supply cliff for US defence. Unlike rare earths, tungsten has no substitutes in defence applications and no time to wait.

Domestic supply is zero. The US has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015. Guardian Metal is the most advanced US-based tungsten developer and the only tungsten company in the world to have received US government funding.

DLA tender is imminent. The Defence Logistics Agency is preparing a tungsten procurement tender. Guardian is likely in discussions with DLA, and it can be expected that the Guardian will bid. The DLA proposed stockpile facility is 35 miles from Pilot Mountain — an advantage no competitor can match

Project Vault. Guardian is in discussions with the Project Vault programme, through which it could sign direct supply contracts with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other prime defence contractors.

Price signal. At (~$3,140/MTU , every month of delay adds to US strategic vulnerability.

Part Three: The MP Materials Valuation Story — What Government Backing Does to a Mining Stock

Before the Deal: Four Years Going Nowhere

MP closed the last trading day of 2024 at $15.60 — virtually unchanged from its $15 SPAC IPO price in November 2020. Four years of flat returns despite strategic national importance. The market had no framework to price in the strategic premium without a concrete government commitment.

July 10, 2025: The Day Everything Changed

The $400m equity investment converted DoW into MP’s largest shareholder — not a grant or loan, but the US government putting real money at risk alongside private shareholders. This alone changed how institutional allocators with defence, ESG, or thematic mandates could justify owning the stock.

The 10-year price floor at $110/kg was the single most transformative element. A government-backed price floor on a 10-year horizon converts commodity-exposed revenue into something closer to a contracted utility income stream. Markets re-rate such businesses at dramatically higher multiples — similar to a power purchase agreement for a renewable energy company.

The termination of the Shenghe offtake removed the single biggest bear argument overnight. MP was no longer a company whose strategic output flowed to China.

Crowding-in of private capital: the DoW deal unlocked $1bn in commercial bank financing from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Government validation lowered the risk premium that private lenders require — a virtuous cycle that substantially reduced MP’s cost of capital.

MP Materials Share Price Timeline

Date / Period	Price (approx.)	Notes
End of 2024	~$15.60	Essentially flat from 2020 IPO — four years of nothing
July 9, 2025 (pre-deal)	~$30	Moving in anticipation
July 10, 2025 (DoD deal day)	~$46	**+50% in a single session
July 15, 2025 (Apple deal)	~$55	Apple’s $500m partnership announced; further +20%
October 14, 2025 (peak)	~$100.25	+235% from pre-deal price
End of 2025	~$52–55	+224% for the full year
Market cap added	~$6–7bn	vs ~$3bn pre-deal

Five days after the DoW deal, Apple announced a $500m, four-year partnership with MP to produce recycled rare earth magnets in the US. The stock added a further ~20%. The lesson: government backing unlocks private-sector demand and changes the entire commercial ecosystem around a company.

Applying the Framework to Guardian Metal

Management has explicitly identified government equity ownership as the “optionality that would create immediate value” — and confirmed that this single step tripled MP Materials’ share price. Guardian is the only tungsten company in the world with government relationships, US soil assets, and current DPA recipient status to replicate that outcome.

Illustrative GMET Re-Rating Scenarios

Scenario	Implied GMET Valuation	Notes
No deal — base case NPV ($725/MTU)	~$890m (+33%)	Berenberg conservative, no deal
No deal — spot NPV (~$2,500/MTU)	~$4.9bn (+638%)	Berenberg spot case, no deal
Small deal (DFS grant ~$25–50m)	~$1.0–1.2bn	Incremental re-rating, financing de-risk
Medium deal ($100m+ equity/loan + price floor)	~$1.5–2.5bn	Meaningful multiple expansion
Full MP-style deal (equity + price floor + offtake)	~$3–5bn+	Full re-rating as contracted strategic platform

The Key Parallel: GMET Today Looks Like MP in 2022

MP was essentially flat for four years after its IPO before the DoW deal re-rated it by 224% in a single year. GMET IPO’d on AIM in May 2023 at GBp 8.5/share and trades at ~GBp 258 today — a ~30x return. But that re-rating reflects exploration milestones and the initial $6.2m grant. The bulk of MP’s value unlock came after the major deal, not before. GMET’s most transformative Catalyst — a full government partnership — is still ahead.

Part Four: The Assets — Two Projects That Could Supply All of America Defense Needs

Pilot Mountain — America’s Tungsten Future

Pilot Mountain is the most advanced domestic US tungsten development project, with serious work beginning over four years ago, giving the Company a clear first-mover advantage in the metal. Located 200km south-east of Reno in Nevada, adjacent to the Hawthorne Army Depot (the world’s largest ammunition depot), it is the subject of a US government-funded PFS due in June 2026. The DLA’s tungsten stockpile facility — which will issue the forthcoming tungsten tender — is just 35 miles away. There is no closer domestic tungsten source for the US defence supply chain. Guardian has signed an LOI with Global Tungsten & Powders for an offtake that would directly support a US strategic tungsten stockpile.

Development Timeline

Milestone	Target
PFS completion	June 2026
Government DFS funding decision	Potentially before June 2026, PFS completion
DFS completion	Q1 2027
Final Investment Decision (FID)	Q2 2027
Equipment deposit payments	During 2026
Construction period	~15 months post-FID
Commercial production	Q3–Q4 2028 (under Trump administration)

Management has confirmed equipment deposit payments will begin in 2026 — a tangible signal of development confidence that precedes formal FID.

Scale of the Opportunity

Metric	Detail
Mill throughput target	4,000 tonnes of processed material per day
Annual tungsten production	1,800–2,000 tonnes per year
US demand coverage	100% of the US annual direct defence demand
US production status	In production, it would be the only tungsten production facility in the US
Deposits on the project	Four total — PFS covers two; two under active exploration (upside not in models) plus other undrilled target areas.
Mining method	Open-pit (both primary deposits)
Capex	$150–200m
Annual EBITDA at spot (~$2,445/MTU)	$350–400m

Resource Summary (December 2025 S-K 1300 compliant)

Classification	Tonnes (Mt)	Grade (% WO₃)	Contained WO₃ (t)
Indicated	8.694	0.206	17,900
Inferred	1.784	0.169	3,000
**Total Desert Scheelite	**10.478	**0.203	**~20,900

The PFS will additionally incorporate the higher-grade Garnet orebody. Ongoing drilling has returned intercepts of up to 39.3m at 0.735% WO₃. Resource expansion on PFS publication is highly likely. Two further deposits plus  are under active exploration and are not included in any current model

Berenberg Base-Case Project Economics (Pilot Mountain)

Metric	Base Case ($725/MTU)	March 26 Spot (~$2,445/MTU)*
Throughput	1.4 Mtpa	—
Tungsten production	~2.2 ktpa	—
Mine life	~12 years (extendable)	—
Revenue pa	~$135m	~$454m
EBITDA pa	~$76m (56% margin)	~$389m
**Mgmt spot EBITDA estimate	—	**$350–400m pa
Capex (Berenberg / mgmt)	~$95m / $150–200m	—
FCF pa	~$55m	~$286m
**NPV(5%)	**$320m	**$1.9bn
First production	Q3–Q4 2028	Q3–Q4 2028

* As of the date of the Berenber initiation

The Government Funding Pathway — A Critical Structural Advantage

What sets Pilot Mountain apart from every other tungsten project globally is not just location or geology — it is the existing government funding relationship and the pathway it creates for follow-on capital.

• Recipient status: Recipient qualification takes at least two years. Guardian has already completed this process. Any other tungsten developer seeking DPA funding would need to start from scratch and wait at least two years before receiving their first dollar, and that is if the portal is open, which it currently is not. Guardian is the only U.S.-focused tungsten company with this status.
• Amendment pathway: Once a company has recipient status, requesting the next tranche can be done simply through an amendment to existing documentation — not a new competitive application, as we have seen with both MP and Perpetua. It is expected that the management would be seeking DFS funding through this mechanism
• Scale of ask: It is expected that management would ask for a materially higher number than the initial $6.2m — consistent with the MP Materials and Perpetual Resources precedent.
• Timing: A decision on DFS funding can come before the June 2026 PFS completion — meaning investors could see a government funding announcement even before the PFS is published.
• DLA tender: The DLA is preparing a tungsten tender. Guardian would be a preferred bidder given they could provide a domestic source within 3 years, which is the typical DLA required delivery timeline. With the DLA stockpile facility 35 miles from Pilot Mountain, Guardian has a decisive logistical advantage.
• Project Vault: Project Vault could yield direct contracts with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and comparable companies — creating an offtake structure that de-risks revenue before a single tonne is mined.

Tempiute — Near-Term Revenue Optionality

Tempiute is a past-producing mine 237km from Pilot Mountain, last operated by Union Carbide (1977–1984), before operations were halted when China flooded the global tungsten market. Guardian acquired it only one year ago. It has two structural advantages: existing infrastructure and the ability to generate tungsten revenue well before Pilot Mountain reaches commercial production.

~$40m of usable infrastructure on site. Mill buildings with equipment foundations in place, a 3,000kW electrical substation, water infrastructure, and five levels of underground adits over a 2.5km strike length. When China killed the tungsten price, Union Carbide walked away from a functional mine.

Private mining rights = faster permitting. Tempiute sits on private mining rights — no federal permitting required. It can be developed under Nevada state rules, which is materially faster than the federal BLM permitting process governing Pilot Mountain.

The tailings opportunity: When the mine operated for 60 years, processing technology (via gravity) recovered only approximately 50% of the tungsten. The rest remains in the tailings — on the surface, with mining costs of approximately $2/tonne. The plan, if we find sufficient tailings volume, is to build processing on site and do it there. This would establish Guardian as an active tungsten producer and supplier to the US Government before Pilot Mountain reaches commercial production. Separate to the tailings, there is ore stockpiled material which could be shipped to a 3^rd party processor at any time.

Tempiute Development Sequence

Phase	Timing	Capex	Output
Ore Stockpiles	2026	Minimal	Establishes Guardian as active producer
On-site tailings reprocessing	2027	Modest	Ongoing tungsten supply from surface material
Full mine reopening	2028+	$80–100m	~2,000 tonnes/year (as in original operation)
Government funding application	Already submitted	N/A	Could accelerate all phases

Combined Portfolio Valuation Scenarios

Tungsten Price Assumption	Combined NPV(5%)	vs Current Mkt Cap (~$670m)
**$725/MTU (base case — Berenberg conservative)	**$890m	**+33%
$1,100/MTU	$1,698m	+153%
$1,500/MTU	$2,626m	+292%
$2,000/MTU	$3,553m	+430%
~$2,500/MTU (at Berenberg research date)	**~$4,944m	**+638%

At base-case conservative pricing — well below current spot — the combined NPV of $890m already exceeds the $670m market cap, before $70m+ cash (post-IPO), before any M&A uplift, and before any government deal premium. At spot prices, the combined NPV approaches $5 billion — roughly 7x the current market cap. And at spot, Pilot Mountain alone generates $350–400m of annual EBITDA against a company market cap of $670m.

 

Part Five: Catalysts — A Clear and Near-Term List

Imminent (Q2 2026)

Government DFS funding decision (could come before June PFS). it is expected that under the existing DPA III contract that management would be looking for materially more funding under the existing contract to support the project into DFS and construction. This would be the first signal of a materially larger government commitment — the equivalent of the ‘second grant’ that preceded transformational deals at MP Materials and Perpetual Resources.

Pilot Mountain PFS — June 2026. The DoW-funded PFS delivers the first formally audited project economics, a resource update incorporating the Garnet orebody, and a capital cost estimate. PFS publication typically triggers significant re-ratings as estimates become audited facts.

H2 2026

Tempiute maiden resource. With 44 drill holes complete, a maiden resource is targeted for H2 2026. This transitions Tempiute from ‘historic mine with no resource’ to formal asset — effectively doubling the de-risked portfolio in a single announcement.

DLA tender submission. As the DLA’s tungsten procurement tender is issued, Guardian will likely submit with a goal to be the preferred domestic supplier — 35 miles from the stockpile facility. Any contract award or preferred-supplier designation would be highly catalytic.

Tempiute tailings processing commencement. Ore would potentially be shipped this year, and tailings reprocessing, if sufficient volumes are found, would be H2 2027. Shipping ore to third-party processors establishes Guardian as an active tungsten producer and supplier to US defence, enabling it to bid in the DLA tender and begin commercial conversations with prime contractors

2027 and Beyond

DFS completion (Q1 2027) and FID (Q2 2027). These milestones convert Pilot Mountain from development to committed construction — the point at which institutional capital allocators typically significantly increase position sizing.

US government equity investment / price floor / offtake. The deal structure management has explicitly identified as the ‘optionality that would create immediate value’. With DPA recipient status established, the DLA tender in progress, and Project Vault conversations underway, the scaffolding for such a deal is actively being built.

Commercial production Q3–Q4 2028. Under the current timeline, Guardian would be producing tungsten while the Trump administration is still in office — politically advantageous for continued government support.

 

Part Six: Why Now

Guardian Metal shares have had a remarkable run: +15% in 2023, +201% in 2024, and +405% in 2025. At ~258p (London) / ~$13.50 per ADS (NYSE), the stock sits near its March 2026 NYSE IPO price having consolidated post-listing. This consolidation — at a time when the PFS is weeks away, government DFS funding could in theory arrive before the PFS, the DLA tender is being prepared, and Druckenmiller has built his position — looks like an attractive entry point for investors with appropriate risk tolerance and a 12–24 month horizon.

Druckenmiller’s involvement deserves specific mention. One of the most respected macro investors in the world becoming the second-largest shareholder signals that some of the most sophisticated capital allocators see the same opportunity outlined here. Druckenmiller is not a momentum chaser — his presence suggests deep conviction in the government-backed critical minerals thesis as applied specifically to Guardian Metal.

The company is fully funded for the DFS from the NYSE IPO proceeds (~$68m raised). Any government funding received will serve to accelerate production timelines, not just cover costs. Berenberg initiated at Positive on 31 March 2026 with combined NPV scenarios from $890m (base) to $4.9bn (spot). Given the ~$670m market cap and ~$70m+ cash, the risk/reward appears asymmetric.

Risks

Pre-production stage. Neither project is in production. PFS and DFS estimates may differ from current assumptions. Resource extensions are not guaranteed, and construction projects in mining frequently encounter delays or cost overruns.

Capex uncertainty. Management’s $150–200m Pilot Mountain estimate is higher than Berenberg’s $95m. Until the PFS provides audited figures, this number remains subject to revision.

Permitting. Pilot Mountain requires US Federal and Nevada state environmental permits. The current regulatory environment for critical minerals is constructive, but could change.

Tungsten price volatility. Current prices reflect acute supply tightness. Prices could moderate if Chinese exports resume, new supply arrives faster than expected, or global industrial demand weakens. Berenberg’s base case ($725/MTU) is well below spot — a deliberate conservatism that provides a margin of safety.

Government deal not guaranteed. The MP-style deal (equity, price floors, offtake) has not yet been offered to any tungsten company. The government may use alternative instruments — loans, grants, stockpile purchases — that are less directly value-accretive for equity holders.

Berenberg conflict of interest. Berenberg Capital Markets acted as co-manager on the GMTL NYSE American IPO. Readers should factor this relationship into their assessment of the Berenberg initiation note.

Summary

Guardian Metal Resources occupies a unique and time-sensitive position: the only dual-listed, government-backed US tungsten developer, with two advanced Nevada projects capable of collectively supplying 100% of US direct defense demand — in a world where Chinese tungsten is increasingly unavailable, Russian and North Korean supply is sanctioned, prices are at record highs, and a statutory defence procurement ban takes effect in January 2027.

Stanley Druckenmiller is the second-largest shareholder. The company is the only tungsten recipient of US DPA Title III funding in the world. The Defense Logistics Agency stockpile facility — which is preparing a tungsten tender — is 35 miles from Pilot Mountain. A government DFS funding decision could in theory come before the June 2026 PFS given the existing contract would complete on publication of the PFS. At current spot prices, Pilot Mountain alone would generate $350–400m of annual EBITDA against a total company market cap of $670m.

The MP Materials precedent, and the Perpetual Resources precedent, showed that the DPA Title III Office’s initial small award is not the end of the story — it is the beginning. Once recipient status is established, transformational follow-on capital follows. Management confirmed that government equity ownership is the move that tripled MP Materials’ share price — and Guardian seems to be the only tungsten company in the world positioned to receive it.

The DFARS clock is ticking. The PFS is weeks away. The DFS funding decision is potentially imminent. The DLA tender is being prepared. Druckenmiller is already positioned. The question is not whether Guardian Metal is interesting. It is whether investors want to be positioned before or after Washington decides to act.

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Disclosure & Important Notes

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The author has no position in any stock mentioned. Early-stage mining investment carries substantial risk of loss. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Sources: Berenberg Discovery Initiation (March 31, 2026), USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025/2026, company reports, management communications, and prior research on MP Materials. All NPV and valuation scenarios are based on Berenberg estimates and management guidance and are illustrative only. Tickers: GMET LN (London AIM), GMTL (NYSE American). Note: Berenberg Capital Markets acted as co-manager on the GMTL NYSE IPO.