Energy Recovery – video from our interview for SumZero

Energy Recovery  (ERII) is the major position for our family office. The stock more than doubled since I wrote the thesis for SumZero and SeekingAlpha about a year ago. However, I believe we are still at the early innings.

Yesterday I recorded a video interview with SumZero CEO on ERII for their
video channel. SumZero is the largest institutional investor idea platform. It
was founded by Winklevoss, who co-founded Facebook with Zuckerberg. The link to the video is below.

ERII is USD 1.2 billion US-based market cap, growing at 20-25% pa, gross margin of 70%, no debt, and USD100 million in cash. ERII has revolutionized the desalination industry, where it has a 100% global market share for large projects. They have not lost a major contract for seven years. They are now introducing their unique technology in other industries. The growth is due to accelerate significantly in the coming quarters. They managed to revolutionize and monopolize one industrial segment; they are now starting to repeat this strategy in three other segments.

In the video, I tried to summarize the ERII investment thesis. We are very bullish on ERII.

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Vicore Pharma – Phase two Covid results show 50% lower occurrence of COVID complications

Vicore Pharma today announced positive results of their Covid drug Phase 2 study. I enclosed below a summary from Pareto Research published today.

We are long Vicore Pharma. The company is now recruiting for its COVID-19 phase 3 trial is now recruiting in 14 hospitals globally. Vicore is showing steady progress while continuing to be fairly hidden/unknown and
trade at a strong discount in our view, even when considering solely its potential in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

From our Scandinavian Pharma portfolio we have positions in Biovica, Bioinvent, Vicore and Ascelia. We have exited this year from Xbrane with above 100% return over 6 months period. We will be reentering the Xbrane trade after the share price declines further, as the company is now facing a year process to gain FDA approval. Our current top pharma position are Biovica and Bioinvent. I wrote here several times about Biovica, I will publish Bioinvent within the next days.

Pareto take on Vicore Phase 2 annaouncement:

Positive COVID-19 phase 2 long-term data
Vicore Pharma today announced phase 2 clinical data from the COVID-19 long-term follow-up study. The study followed 33 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (from the phase 2 ATTRACT trial) requiring supplemental oxygen at the time of enrollment for 3-6 months (but have not progressed to mechanical ventilation at the time of enrollment). Patients’ lungs were assessed with CT scans with the major radiological change observed being “opaque area / hazy opacification” of the lung, dubbed ground-glass opacity. The patients treated with Vicore’s drug, C21 (VP01), showed a nearly 50% lower occurrence of such pathological abnormalities (10.3% affected) compared to placebo (19.2% affected). Considering the strong phase 2 data on clinical parameters (reduction in need for supplemental oxygenation) and other data bits such as the IPF lung transplant data of 2020, the regenerative biology activated by the first-in-class angiotensin type 2 receptor agonist C21 gained further validation today. Vicore’s lead drug continues to impress and look like it could become a potential blockbuster drug within the “drug graveyard” of fibrotic lung diseases and possibly beyond. We therefore reiterate our Buy recommendation and target price of SEK 97 per share.                      

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Ascelia Pharma presentation at Redeye Investor Forum

Ascelia Pharma is reporting on 4/11. Below is a summary of the presentation at Redye Research.

Ascelia sold off after Q2 based on slower recruitment of patients for Phase 3 study of Orviglance due to Covid restrictions. The bar is very low. Positive Q3 patients recruitment data on Thursday could drive the stock up materially.

Ascelia has two products:

Orviglance:

  • A contrast agent for kidney MRI. Currently in advanced Phase 3 study.
  • Target market of UDS 500-600 million of annually
  • 6 studies for Phase 1 and 2 completed
  • Pivotal Phase 3 study in 50 sites is due to be completed in 1H22 – including Mayo and Karolinske

Oncoral:

  • oral drug for treating gastric cancer
  • Better efficacy and safety
  • Phase 2 study due to be completed in 2024
  • Clinical collaboration on Oncolar with Taiho Oncology
  • After gastric is planning

Watch the full presentation from the Redeye conference:

Ascelia Pharma is fully funded to complete the above studies.

We are long Ascelia Pharma.

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

ABG on Norske Skog – “ Very large price increases for ‘22”

I am bullish Norske Skog (NSKOG) for some time. During the last two months both Pareto and Sparebank listed NSKOG in their monthly TOP IDEASES for Norway. ABG is increasingly bullish too. Pls find below a front page summary of their 20 page report on NSKOG:

Norske Skog
Very large price increases for ‘22


Q3 was better – very large paper prices hikes into ‘22
Clean EBITDA of NOK 111m was 23% above Infront consensus as higher paper prices added NOK 195m q-o-q while higher RCP/energy costs deducted NOK 163m. In addition, the utilization rate was 95%. Newsprint prices rose 17-18% in Q3 and have been announced up another ~27% due to very high RCP/energy costs and tight paper markets in Europe. Our MTM points to ~NOK 2bn for Norske Skog if we include the announced price hikes. Gas prices have shot up and Norske buys 1.1 TWh of gas at the Bruck site. This is negative short-term, but the gas bill should be much lower from Q2‘22 when the Bruck energy boiler starts up. The CO2-related payments could rise NOK 300-400m into ’22/’23e on higher CO2 prices.

A pipeline of growth projects; SOTP ~NOK 65-80/share
Norske Skog has several growth projects in the pipeline that could more than double EBITDA. The key projects are paper to packaging conversion and the new waste-to-energy facility, which could add NOK 70m and NOK 200m, respectively. We arrive at a discounted value of NOK 65/sh. Approximate values would be NOK 30/sh for the paper assets, NOK 24/sh for the packaging conversion and NOK 12/sh for the waste-to-energy facility. This calculation does not include the potential from its other projects. We find an SOTP value of ~NOK 80/sh if we also include the potential values from the remaining projects (Cebina, Circa, pellets).

————-

My NSKOG Investment thesis summary:

  • NSKOG is very cheap vs its peers –  Sparebank research stated : “if valued in line with peers, we argue that a fair price is closer to NOK 100” that is 250% above its current share price.
  • NSKOG’s renewable asset portfolio has a higher value than NSKOG current market capitalization
  • Newsprint plant closures are pushing prices higher that should multiply NSKOG profitability. It is already happening and should accelerate further into 22.
  • Renewable assets come into production next year (mainly renewable packaging), that should significantly improve profitability further
  • Doubling income from selling CO2 permits from 2022 to EURO 60 mln per year should improve profitability materially.

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Quantafuel – Minutes from call with the managment on 21/10/21

Our family office was invited to participate on the call with QFUEL management yesterday. The family office that invited us owns above 1% of QFUEL. Our family office has a material position in QFUEL too. I summarize below the main takeaways :

No Skive delay

  • The plant reconstruction is proceeding as planned.
  • All equipment is either in Skive or is on the way with confirmed delivery in the first week of November.
  • The management does not anticipate a delay in the plant modifications due to some equipment missing.
  • The reconstruction should start in early November.
  • The first modified line should be back in operations in the first half of December
  • The other lines will be reconstructed right after that.

Proof of concept around year-end

  • QFUEL has run numerous tests during the last months that make them confident that the proof of concept should be reachable around the year-end.
  • This was said by Terje at the Pareto conference few weeks ago, and it was reconfirmed again today.

INdustrial-scale production in Skive expected in 2Q22

  • The management expects it will take one or two quarters for the production to reach an industrial scale with meaningful revenues.

VItol plant permission by mid-2022

  • At the Pareto conference, Terje stated that QFUEL selected a site for the Vitol plant in Amsterdam, and is submitting an application for building permits.
  • The management confirmed today that permits could be obtained by mid-2022—the plant with then take 24 months to build.
  • Vitol second plant is to be built in Antwerp. QFUEL is in the process of obtaining permissions for the Antwerp plant, which should be received within a year.
  • There should be good news flow related to the plants progress in the following quarters.

Kristiansund production this year!

  • The mechanical line 20k tonnes should start production by the end of this year. This should add to QFUEL revenues
  • Chemical recycling plant construction should start next year and should take 24 months to complete
  • The partner for the plant is BASF

ESbjerg partners

  • The company has good interest from both industrial and financial investors to participate in the Esbjerg project. No partner was selected yet.
  • They have all the permits for plant construction.
  • Once the partner is selected, it should take about 24 months to complete.

QFUEL is building a relationship with US investors

  • This year QFUEL participated in an investor conference organized by Bank Of America. The relationship is expected to continue with a goal to broaden the QFUEL investor universe. QFUEL hopes to participate on more US conferences

OUR TAKE

Very positive to get a reconfirmation of NO DELAY in Skive reconstruction. It was also positive to see their confidence in reaching the proof of concept around the New Year.

Share price impact: If you look at past price performance, when the market expected proof of concept, the share price jumped above 80 NOK. That is more than triple from today share price. The share price could easily beat this when proof of concept is achieved. That is 200% upside. If the proof of concept is again delayed, you could seek QFUEL declining to low 20s NOK. That is 20% downside. 200% upside vs 20% downside seems like a good risk reward.

The company is very active in preparing new plant projects. Once the proof of concept is achieved, there should be a lot of traction – there will be four large plants under construction at the same time. There should be a lot of positive newsflow.

Interesting article on QFUEL in Der Aktionaer:

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/goldman-stuft-diesen-recycler-auf-buy-30-prozent-aufwaertspotenzial-20239358.html?fbclid=IwAR3C7HMMKs3-yduzpSzLqO0uKh4NiAXRL8YsfMoKWsMVVnFILaa6FA1nIIE

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Our Family Office Top Positions in Scandinavia

We summarize our largest conviction ideas, we currently have in play in Sweden and Norway. We present today our larger positions. We will bring our smaller positions in the next few days.

Biovica

Biovica is Sweden based company that developed breast cancer tests, that can early detect the severity of the cancer and indicate, whether the selected medication is having effect.

Early this year, one of our top convictions ideas was Xbrane. As we predicted the share price doubled over a period of few weeks. Biovica is similar play like Xbrane. It is awayting FDA approval, which Pareto analyst expects with 95% certainty. The reason is Biovica over 30 studies from best US and European hospitals. You do not often see such study strength. The FDA approval should happen Oct/Nov.

I believe Biovica offers the best risk/reward in Scandinavian Healthcare. The share price should at least double this year and potentially multiply further next year. If you doubled your money playing Xbrane with me, this ride will be even better. Full Biovica investment thesis:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

Linkfire

Linkfire is providing smart links for music streaming industry. They have 70% market share and growing strongly in its innovative field. Five bullet point summary on Linkfire opportunity:

  • There are many streaming companies. But there is just one dominating service company that serves most of them with 70% market share.
  • Linkfire connects consumers on social platforms who wanted to download a song to music streaming companies that provide the content. Linkfire collects revenues from both.
  • Linkfire revenues have grown at 40%-60% CAGR with a stable 76% gross margin. The growth is accelerating further in 2021.
  • Linkfire was a victim of a difficult IPO timing. If it was placed in January or February, its share price would’ve doubled on debut.
  • Very strong catalysts in the next six months should cause the share price to double.

Full investment thesis is in the article below:

Linkfire: A Unique Play On Music Streaming Through Market Leader Growing At 50%+ CAGR | Seeking Alpha

Pyrum

Pyrum is the global leader in chemical recycling of tires, owned by BASF and Continental and backed by Michelin and other majors.

We published article on SeekingAlpha on Pyrum. SeekingAlpha selected our article in PRO Editor Selection of Best Ideas on SeekingAlpha. This indicates SeekingAlpha editors rank the idea highly.

Idea Summary:

  • Annually, around 31 million tonnes of used tires need to be recycled. Currently, 56% is land-filled. This practice is banned in most developed markets now.
  • Pyrum is the global leader in the chemical recycling of tires, addressing the global tire waste problem with a patented pyrolysis solution, recycling rubber into high-value products.
  • Its first plant has been in continues operation since May 2020. The capacity is sold one year forward.
  • The company has global technological leadership years ahead of the competition.
  • Its strong partners Continental, Michelin, and BASF support the investment case.

Original investment idea published on SeekingAlpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459088-pyrum-innovations-co-invest-with-basf-and-continental-in-the-global-tire-recycling-leader

Quantafuel

Quantafuel is the global leader in plastic recycling. BASF is the largest investor. The company lost 70% of its market capitalization in the last 6 months due to the delay in delivery of start of continues production. We believe the company has turned the corner. It has appointed a new CEO last week, and is due to install new equipment in November which should bring the company into continues production. If that happens the share price potential is 200% within a short term period. It should regain the share price levels where it was trading when the management announced production delay. This is expected in Nov/Dec. Risk reward is very appealing. We estimate 20% downside if there is further delay, and 200% upside if the production goals are achieved. Full investment thesis is below:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378135-quantafuel-global-leader-in-chemical-recycling-of-plastic-backed-basf-and-vitol-potential-to

Africa Energy

AEC is our top oil company position. I believe it has a potential to triple over the next 12 months.

There is one big difference between AEC and other oil plays. There are many oil companies that have great portfolios and are buying cheaply oil assets from the majors. Where AEC differs is – it has one of the top gas condensate assets that it is intends to sell. Pareto believes the sale should happen within 12 months. The sales price is most likely a multiple of its current market capitalization. If there is a low risk high return play, it is AEC.

Latest update

Full investment thesis:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444974-africa-energy-backed-by-total-asset-sale-behind-the-corner-to-triple-your-capital

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Our Pyrum idea was selected as TOP PRO IDEA by Seeking Alpha

We published article on SeekingAlpha on Pyrum. SeekingAlpha selected our article in PRO Editor Selection of Best Ideas on SeekingAlpha. This indicates SeekingAlpha editors rank the idea highly.

Idea Summary:

Pyrum Innovations: Co-Invest With BASF, And Continental In The Global Tire Recycling Leader

  • Annually, around 31 million tonnes of used tires need to be recycled. Currently, 56% is land-filled. This practice is banned in most developed markets now.
  • Pyrum is the global leader in the chemical recycling of tires, addressing the global tire waste problem with a patented pyrolysis solution, recycling rubber into high-value products.
  • Its first plant has been in continues operation since May 2020. The capacity is sold one year forward.
  • The company has global technological leadership years ahead of the competition.
  • Its strong partners Continental, Michelin, and BASF support the investment case.

Original investment idea published on SeekingAlpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459088-pyrum-innovations-co-invest-with-basf-and-continental-in-the-global-tire-recycling-leader

PRO Editor Selection of Best Ideas publication on SeekingAlpha.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459396-sa-pro-editors-pyrum-innovations-100-percent-plus-upside

Comparison of Pyrum vs Quantafuel

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Norske Skog – Both Pareto and SpareBank confirms NSKOG as Top Pick for October

Every month Pareto Securities and Sparebank publish their top pick ideas for the month. Norske Skog is on both top idea lists – it is the only stock both houses rank as top idea. For both it is the second month in a row. I enclose below the justification for they presented.

SpareBank note on Norske Skog:

Newsprint and containerboard prices up 15-20% and marginal change up for input costs

Power compensation alone could increase EBITDA with NOK250m, but political uncertainty (not included in estimates)

The closures of capacity have rebalanced supply demand and according
to our knowledge, newsprint prices in Europe has had an material
increase in July. Q2 was a disappointment due to higher costs for
recovered paper (RCP), but RCP prices have been flat the last month.
Cost increases are front-end loaded.

The effect of the closures and hence increased utilisation have
according to our knowledge led to a material increase in prices for
newsprint in Europe. Our take is that the share prices for peers to
NSKOG have increased the last month due to this price increase with
NSKOG lagging peers. The enterprise value of NSKOG is small compared
to peers and NSKOG has a large investment programme starting in Q3
2021, but still we argue the disconnect to peers is unwarranted.

Overall, we expect prices for NSKOG will increase 15% compared to Q2
2021 for Q4 2021 and around 10% in Q3 2021 as some contracts will
have price increases later in Q3 2021. From Q4 2021, with 15% price
increase, flat RCP prices and higher gas prices, we expect NSKOG to
deliver an annualised EBITDA close to NOK1bn. If valued in line with
peers, we argue that a fair share price is NOK closer to NOK100.
The
conversion to containerboard is in our mind a step towards being
valued in line as a going-concern. As the majority of the current
portfolio for NSKOG is exposed to a declining market, we value NSKOG
based on a “5% decline in demand” scenario and view NOK50 as a fair
target price.

We recommend buying NSKOG ahead of the Q3 numbers as we expect
this quarter will show the effect of increased utilisation/prices and the
path to a NOK1bn EBITDA scenario.

Pareto Securities note on Norske Skog in top pics

NSKOG – BUY, TP NOK 60
We keep NSKOG in our monthly portfolio. The European publication paper market has responded well to the strengthening of
the economy and better than originally anticipated. Limited supply of recycled paper and capacity closures have tightened
markets further, seeing additional price hikes into 2022. NSKOG’s legacy assets are thus set for a structural and cyclical earnings
uptick, and we see potential for 6-7x quarters with consecutive earnings growth. Also, recycled containerboard is leaving ample
upside where current market prices now imply ~2-3x higher EBITDA potential than initially estimated. Along with
fibre/renewable energy projects running according to plan, we find the upside potential encouraging, currently trading at 3.4x
EV/EBITDA’22E (PAS est. adj. CIRCA stake).

BUY / TP NOK 60

My NSKOG Investment thesis summary:

  • it is very cheap vs its peers –  Sparebank research stated : “if valued in line with peers, we argue that a fair price is closer to NOK 100” that is 250% above its current share price.
  • its renewable asset portfolio has a higher value than NSKOG current market capitalization
  • Newsprint plant closures are pushing prices higher that should multiply NSKOG profitability
  • Renewable assets come into production next year (mainly renewable packaging), that should significantly improve profitability further
  • Doubling income from selling CO2 permits from 2022 to EURO 60 mln per year should improve profitability materially.

Norske Skog will be reporting Q3 next week. Should be major catalyst for the stock

If interested, last week posts on this blog for summaries of Pareto and Sparebank research on Norske Skog

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Pyrum vs Quantafuel – comparison of the two leaders in chemical recycling

I am big believer in chemical recycling. There are two leading companies – Quantafuel (QFUEL) focused on chemical recycling of plastic. and Pyrum Innovations (PYRUM) focused on chemical recycling of tires.

Both companies have strong strategic vision and I belive that both are best positioned to become global leaders in their field.

What they have in common

  • Strong partners – both have BASF as the main shareholders. Pyrum has Continental as a shareholder and have backing from Michelin and others
  • Strong management – Pascal Klein is equally strong as Dr Lach
  • Technology superiority – both companies are the global market leaders in their technology. Pyrum si perhaps even a step ahead of QFUEL.
  • Strong vision – both companies have credible plans how to transform their technological superiority to global production leadership
  • High upside potential – if Pyrum and QFUEL would become global leaders by sales, the share price potential is meaningful – both companies could be easily 10 times more valuable in 3 to 5 years time frame.
  • There are companies in the US that trade at USD1.7 bln market capitalization while being years behind QFUEL (PureCycle technologies, ticker PCT). This is an indication of upside potential.

There are few differences:

  • Pyrum is already operation continuous production since March 2020. There was no single unplanned production interruption. It means you do not have the technology risk – two years of continuous production is good proof of the technology
  • Pyrum is cheap vs QFUEL – Pyrum is valued at 50% of Quantafuel. This valuation difference is unjustified, given Pyrum being one step ahead of QFUEL as they are already in continuous operation since March 2020.

I am long Pyrum since the IPO and I doubled my stake in the last two weeks. I am long QFUEL.

Detailed investment thesis was published yesterday on SeekingAlpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459088-pyrum-innovations-co-invest-with-basf-and-continental-in-the-global-tire-recycling-leader

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Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

Biovica – My discussion with the management on the FDA approval process

I reached out yesterday to Biovica on the FDA approval.

Question

I read your announcement and all the research and info on the FDA delay. May I please ask how this works? Will FDA give you a signal that you are back In the review process?

Answer

Some background about the FDA process. We submitted in September 2020 and passed the two first milestones in the FDA process, see this link: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/premarket-notification-510k/510k-submission-process#timeline

So, since October 2020, we’ve been in Substantive Review phase. However, at the same time, we got the feedback about the 90-day delay, since the FDA re-allocated all their resources to Covid-applications and put all others, including ours, on pause.

After ~80 days into the pause, in mid January 2021, we got the information that the pause would be extended with 90 days but the FDA opened up for an opportunity to come in with feedback to argue for why our case should be one of the few that they prioritized re-started earlier.

So, we did that and submitted a strong case for DiviTum and our case. That resulted in positive feedback from FDA as they on the 29th January 2021 officially reopened the review of our application.

However, nothing happened until end of May 2021 when we got a lot of questions from the FDA. We then did an SIR submission to be able to meet with all FDA experts to discuss the questions raised by the FDA. During this process most of the questions were resolved and only a few questions remained to be discussed and answered. The FDA then gave us feedback that the remaining questions would be resolved interactively, which we thought was very positive.

However, during August and September the FDA couldn’t provide feedback quickly, it often took them several weeks, due to their high workload, which is a result of the backlog caused by the pandemic situation.

In the last weeks, we have provided feedback requested by the FDA, and we’ve been able to sort out several of the open questions which we now are waiting for feedback on from FDA.

Given the current backlog due to the pandemic situation, it is difficult to give a forecast, as we’ve given all the input we’ve been asked for and are waiting for the FDA response. The next step after the FDA feedback is for us to submit the updated application and hopefully the next step should go smooth as we’ve sorted out all open issues with the FDA.

My summary from the above:

Biovica is waiting for a feedback from the FDA on last open issues. That could come any day now. After that they will submit updated application, which should result in FDA approval. Pareto and ABG stated that they believe the FDA approval may come as early as October. For the value of the stock, it is not relevant, if that happens two weeks or two months later. The relevant issue are:

  1. The likelihood of the FDA approval is very high – Pareto gives this 95% probability.
  2. After the FDA approval the share price should re-rate strongly
  3. There will be further material catalysts right after approval – mainly the imminent start of the US sales and agreement on reimbursement with US insurers (expected within two months of the approval)
  4. In 2022 Biovica will file application for other cancer tests
  5. I spoke to the analysts, they believe that next year Biovica shold become a takeover target. Redeye has a bullish scenario over 300 SEK. It is not unrealistic, that we could see this share price value next year

I believe Biovica offers the best risk/reward in Scandinavian Healthcare. The share price should at least double this year and potentially multiply further next year. If you doubled your money playing Xbrane with me, this ride will be even better.

Full investment thesis:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

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