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The Nordea analyst likes the business, he likes the industry, but is disappointed by the constant over-promise and not deliver story. We all do, and we all are experiencing the resulting pain.

I spoke to the analyst Elliott Jones many times. While he was at Fearnleys he was very bullish on QFUEL. If you read the Nordea report, he still is. At the same time he is puzzled by constant over-promises. And he is puzzled by the recent capital raise. (Please see my previous post on QFUEL for my understanding of the reasons for the timing of the recent capital increase).

Strangely, the front page summary is much more harsh than the whole report. I copy below some quotes from the report that in my view give a good summary of the report (bold emphasis added):

“Although the elegant nature of its proposed chemical recycling technology in combination with sorting and mechanical recycling assets is impressive, the company has repeatedly missed its technological proof of concept targets, which troubles us.”

“We are troubled by its track record of not meeting targets, as evidenced by capex multiple times higher than the initial guidance for Skive, which was originally due to commence operations in Q1 2020.”

“We base our valuation methodology on deriving cash flows for each Quantafuel facility mentioned in our envisaged rollout in the above section. We assume a WACC of 8% (in line with our choice of WACC for other chemical recyclers we cover). In the next step, we feel it necessary to risk the discounted cash flows of each phase (the first phase being the facilities in construction, the second phase being projects announced and the third phase being the future rollout).

The first reason for this is that we want to take into account the risks going forward that come with an early-stage company in a nascent industry. The second reason, however, is that the company has in the past missed several deadlines/milestones (for example, first oil and proof of concept at Skive, capex at Skive, etc.). While we fully understand that there have been several good reasons for this, we believe it is fair and sensible to further risk the company’s value to account for potential misses in deadlines in the future. As a result of this, we assign a 90% probability to the current facilities (Skive, Aalborg, Kristiansund), a 70% probability to Esbjerg sorting (higher than chemical given recent company commentary), a 60% probability to Esbjerg chemical, 40% to Amsterdam, Sunderland and Dubai and 25% to the future facilities.”

“What do we need to see for us to change our minds?

As mentioned, we believe Quantafuel is targeting a very elegant solution to the issue of waste plastic, involving post-pyrolysis purification as well as combining chemical recycling with sorting and mechanical recycling facilities to obtain the highest possible recycling rate. Given this, we note that if the company is able to reach proof of technological concept and hit company-guided targets, we see an increasingly de-risked case – to this point, if we model 100% probability for all phases and include an offtake price in line with company guidance (USD 1,000/tonne), a fair value of almost NOK 70 per share is achieved.“

Our Summary

In summary the analyst brings down the DCF by putting probability discounts on the company projects. For example he gives Skive, Kristianslund and Aalborg 90% probability of success, Esbjerg 60-70% and all other mega projects 25%-40%. I view as a positive that he sees the Skive, Kristianslund, and Aalborg as 90% chance of success. I believe this is in many investors the prime risk. I believe if they can put Skive in operation, achieve Proof of Concept and achieve their 2022 guidance, than the further growth will follow. QFUEL will become the leader of plastic recycling. It is therefore encouraging that Elliott gives that 90% success probability.

I think that his 25%-40% chance on other projects is a bit contra-intuitive – if he believes that Skive has 90% chance of succeeding, than I think it makes very likely that at least some other projects will happen as well. Discounting all of them by 60%-75% might be too harsh.

The report is much more bullish than the front page summary suggest. In fact, if QFUEL suddenly now reported PoC, which will turn the investment case sunny and promising again, Elliott could publish a very bullish report with a 70NOK TP, and use 90% of this report without changing it much.

His main point remains valid. “If the company can get it right and consistently hit deadlines, we see high potential (more than twice current share price levels)…” At the graph above his current valuation of QFUEL achieving its targets is 69NOK, if Quantafuel starts delivering. We are on board with that.

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

QFUEL CEO and Lego foundation participated in Quantafuel (QFUEL) share issue yesterday. Carnegie published their bullish update on Norske Skog (NSKOG) increasing their price target. Pareto and SpareBank have NSKOG as their best idea for January. It is out top idea for the next two weeks.

Quantafuel competed share issue yesterday

The company made two intersting disclosures – information on who subscribed and Skive update:

Skive update:

The ramp-up of production at the Skive plant continues to progress, and two of four lines have operated at design capacity proving that the last remaining identified process challenges have been resolved. The production lines also delivered the oil yield and quality expected indicating the chemical process is functioning according to plan. The plant has limited redundancy, so the Company still need to stabilize operation and produce for a longer time-period to deliver on its plan for Proof-of-Concept. Last week (the w/c 17 January 2022), the Company converted more than 100 MT of waste plastic to valuable product, and the Company’s opinion is that they are well on track to reach the 12,000 MT target for the full year 2022. The forecasted CAPEX of NOK 610 million remains unchanged.

It is encouraging that QFUEL again reconfirmed their bullish full year guidance. It implies the plant should be running at full capacity from mid year. It is also very encouraging the plant seems to be able to process a lot of plastic – 100mt per week seems encouraging. As I wrote before here, I do not believe, that it makes any difference to the QFUEL value proposition of whether the PoC is reached this week or next month. I understand that the reason for the timing might be a regulatory one. Insiders can not trade within 30 days before the quarterly results announcement. Yesterday was the last day before the deadline. Kirby, as a main shareholder would not be able to participate between yesterday and the results announcement. The company might have been also concerned about the worsening market conditions caused by changing macro environment as well as geopolitical issues (Ukraine tensions). They are right – if Russia would attack Ukraine, the markets would close for many months…

Strong shareholders subscribed:

KIRKBI Invest A/S, a company closely related to the board member Kasper Trebbien, was yesterday allocated 4,000,000 shares in Quantafuel ASA at a price of NOK 25.00 per share. After the transaction, KIRKBI Invest A/S holds 17,888,880 shares in Quantafuel ASA.

Thorleif Enger, member of Quantafuel ASA’s board of directors, was yesterday allocated 20,000 shares in Quantafuel ASA through Thoeng AS at a price of NOK 25.00 per share. After the transaction, Thorleif Enger and affiliates holds 159,300 shares and 80,000 options in Quantafuel ASA.

Lars Rosenløv Jensen, CEO in Quantafuel ASA, was yesterday allocated 20,000 shares in Quantafuel ASA at a price of NOK 25.00 per share. After the transaction, Lars Rosenløv Jensen holds 20,800 shares and 400,000 options in Quantafuel ASA.

There is another interesting aspect I saw yesteray in the FB Quantafuel Investoren Forum. It showed that 20 largest shareholders are buying. That seems to be right even after you deduct custody banks for online trading platforms. Smart money buying is always a good signal.

Norske Skog – top idea for the next week

Norske Skog (NSKOG) is reporting next Friday. Pareto and Sparebank have NSKOG as their best idea for January. Carnegie increased their price target today that drove the share price up 5%. ABG is due to report their guadance next week. NSKOG is our top trade idea for the next week:

• NSKOG Q4 numbers should be very strong. Brokers estimate Q4vsQ3 EBITDA growth by 200-300%.
• Strong paper prices should cause the EBITDA to tripple in 22 vs 21. Sparebank estimates EBITDA would increase from 450 mill NOK to 1600 mil NOK. Carnegie expects 2022 EBITDA even higher at 1950 million NOK.
• NSKOG is cheap vs peers. Under Sparebank estimates NSKOG trades at 4.2x 2022EBITDA vs 9.5x 2022EBITDA for the peers.
• Pareto estimates that the renewable portfolio has the same value as NSKOG current market cap. I do not believe the mkt gives NSKOG any credit. Its waste to energy plants comes into operation in five months. That should cause recognition of this value by investors.
• The mkt gives NSKOG no credit for significant CO2 permits revenue – Carnegie estimated the CO2 permits revenue between 45-60million EURO. That was done when permits were around 60 EURO. The permits are around 90 Euro, If you recalculate this to current CO2 prices, the next year CO2 revenues would be 60-80 Million EURO. That is very material for 350 million EURO market cap. For comparison SpareBank estimates that next year paper EBITDA would be 100 million EURO. CO2 Permits could increase the EBITDA by 60-80%.

Carnegie increased its price target today. Research front page summary below:

We expect EBITDA more to double Q/Q to NOK230m
Q4(21) has been characterised by strongly increasing energy prices (electricity and gas) and to some extent other input costs, but also higher publication paper prices for those producers, such as Norske Skog, that have imposed surcharges. While we expect material costs per tonne in Europe to have increased by 21% (from EUR300/t to EUR363/t), this is more than offset by higher paper prices. For Q4, we have factored in EUR569/t (+EUR100/t).
There might be upside here as the time-weighted surcharges add up to EUR126/t.

Strong increase in 2022 estimates, modest for 2023
Currently the publication paper market is very tight. Recent closures, high energy prices and the Finnish strike all contribute. We expect the industry’s operating rate to exceed 90% over the next two years. For 2022e we have increased Norske Skog’s ASP in Europe by 10% (to EUR629/t) and for 2023e by 4% (to EUR584/t). The 2022 price estimate is 17% below the January prices, recently released by RISI. This alone increases our 2022 and 2023 EBITDA estimates by NOK870m and NOK310m, respectively. Higher energy and material cost forecasts (+ 5%) shave off around NOK200m. In total this increases EBITDA in 2022e by 56% to NOK1,949m and for 2023e by 3% to NOK1,524m.

Despite a decent run lately, the share still stands out very favourably
On our estimates, the share trades on EV/EBITDA multiples of 3.2x and 4.4x on our 2022 and 2023 estimates. Excluding the IBD build-up for the conversions and the value of the nonpaper initiatives (not incl. in P&L EBITDA), the corresponding multiples fall to ~1.8–1.9x.

We increase our target price to NOK80(70)
The new target price is based on our new estimates with peer pricing and a 35% discount and a SOTP valuation, where we have used 2025 estimates at an EV/EBITDA of 5x for the ‘old’ Norske Skog, 6x for the conversion and we have also risked the values by 33%.

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving any compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before investing money in these creasy markets.

Pareto Newsflash:

Positive read-through from Shell discovery offshore Namibia 

Reuters yesterday published a news article stating that Shell has made a major oil and gas discovery offshore Namibia (close to the border to South Africa).

This has been rumored for a couple of weeks and the article based on “several industry sources” state that the discovery is likely to be announced by the Namibian government and Shell next week. The Graff-1 discovery is estimated to be 250-300 mill boe and will, if confirmed, open a new hydrocarbon basin.

This is positive for Africa Energy (BUY/TP SEK 4.50) as its Bock 2B exploration well expected to be drilled later this year is located in the same hydrocarbon basin. The discovery also has a positive read-through on Africa Oil (BUY/TP SEK 14) and Eco Atlantic given their interests in the region.

For latest update see minutes of the call with AEC management

Africa Energy – Minutes from the Call with the Management

My valuation of AEC

Africa Energy – excellent update from Pareto conference – valuation impact assessment

Disclosure:

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

It is two weeks today since QFUEL CEO declared:

…we have the corrected feeding issues and restarted the plant today and anticipate achieving PoC shortly…”

Lars Rosenløv, Quantafuel CEO at Pareto conference 12.1.2021

We do not know what Proof of Concept really means. Pareto analyst mentioned that it is two weeks of continues production at certain level and certain quality. Two weeks is up today. At the same time – it takes some time to rump up the production. Could be days. We do not know. The point is that it could come soon. It could be any day from now on, unless there is some other issue. The potential Proof of Concept should result in a major share price re-rating. Our family office increased our position by 20% this week.

At the same time, as Dr. Lach stated as a reason for joining the company, that “Quantafuel is the most advanced and most QFUEL is the most advanced and most ambitious company in the chemical recycling area”. We are in very early stages of the development. If QFUEL succeeds in its mission, its share price could easily multiply in several times. In a few months, it would not matter if the Proof of Concept was reached this week or next month. Just a reminder of broker price targets from earlier this year before Kjetil disappointed the market by not delivering PoC and resigning (after that some brokers reduced PT):

Fearnley (current) – 95 NOK

Pareto: (21/3/21) – 100 NOK

SpareBank (26/3/21) – 200 NOK

Arctic: (9/3/21) – 125 NOK

In summary, entering before PoC may influence the entry price. Timing of PoC should not effect the QFUEL value opportunity.

Biovica Update

Redeye Research had presentation of Biovica yesterday (link below).

The company mentioned the FDA restarted the process and Biovica answered additional questions. There is just question remaining now. Biovica already provided an answer and is now awaiting for FDA response, that “can come any day now”. If positive Biovica will submit updated application for the final approval. As everything would be already approved, such FDA approval should be a formality.

FDA approval is a major catalyst for Biovica. It has been delayed due to FDA congestion with Covid applications. It is very positive, FDA is now working on Biovica again. It is even more positive, that only one issue remains and that could be “resolved any day now”. As I wrote here before, we are very bullish on Biovica. Xbrane in similar catalyst more than doubled. Biovica could easily double too.

Biovica presentation at Redeye:

https://www.redeye.se/video/event-presentation/831142/biovica-henrik-winther-ceo-presents-at-redeye-theme-fight-cancer-seminar-outlook-2022?utm_source=video&utm_medium=email

Disclosure:

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

On Wednesday it will be two weeks since QFUEL CEO announced Skive was restarted after all feeding issues have been resolved.

Pareto analysts wrote that Proof of Concept might be two weeks of continues production. We do not know if this is accurate. If correct and if the plant did not experience some issues, we could have the Proof of Concept this week.

QFUEL is now running two lines in Skive – QFUEL has two chances to reach this self imposed milestone.

QFUEL reminds me our investment in FB. The company was listed at USD38 in 2012. There was a lot of bad speculations, the share price went down. If I remember correctly the share price bottomed at USD17 around the time the intial lock-ups expired. Our family office was buying at those levels. We sold several months later at USD55. We felt proud, our performance was very strong that year. I feel much less proud of the trade now. FB today is around USD300. We got the entry point right, but we sold way too early. We underappreciated the game changing potential FB had for our society.

QFUEL might be at a similar stage. It did not deliver the PoC last June as Kjetil promissed. In combination with his departure the investor confidence has been shaken by this. But if one believes that chemical recycling of plastic will be a major business in the near future, and if one believes that QFUEL is the most advanced and most ambitious company in the chemical recylcing area (as Dr. Lach stated when he joined QFUEL) than it does not matter, if they reach PoC this week or next month. In our view the investment story is strong either way.

Additional disclosure – we have taken advantage of the turmoil and increased our QFUEL position by 20% this week.

Disclosure:

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

Pareto issued a bullish report today on Linkfire, one of the most interesting IPOs of the last year.

The company is growing strongly and today it reported EBITDA break-even from the next year. Small volume retail selling caused the share price drop and made it even more interesting investment proposition.

Pareto Securities report on Linkfire today

Linkfire expects to reach EBITDA break even in 2023

Linkfire announced today that it expects to reach EBITDA break even in 2023. The news come following that operations are performing well
and as several product optimization measures have been taken that are helping improve the monetization level on traffic. The projection
does not entail any changes to Linkfire’s previously disclosed financial targets of 50-70% organic revenue growth for the 2021-2023 period,
with a targeted gross margin of ~80%. We have targeted EBITDA break even in 2023 since we initiated coverage but view it as positive
seeing that the management come out and state it as a projection. This reaffirms our thesis that the high gross margin structure in Linkfire
will allow for significant profitability in the years beyond 2023, as the company reaches greater revenue levels and matures as a company.
We have a Buy rating on Linkfire, with a target price of SEK 16.

Five bullet point summary on Linkfire opportunity:

• Linkfire connects consumers on social platforms who wanted to download a song to music streaming companies that provide the content. Linkfire collects revenues from both.
• Linkfire has 70% market share in its segment. The penetration is still very low.
• Linkfire revenues have grown at 40%-60% CAGR with a stable 76% gross margin. The growth is accelerating further in 2022.
• Linkfire managed to dominate music industry. They will now enter with the same product podcasts, movies and games. These new areas will multiply the revenue opportunity.
• Very strong catalysts in the next six months.

See the previous blog posts on Linkfire for more details

Link to the Q3 presentation

Investors Relation – Linkfire

Link to the investment thesis

Linkfire: A Unique Play On Music Streaming Through Market Leader Growing At 50%+ CAGR | Seeking Alpha

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

Our favorite Macro analyst AndreasStenoLarsen recently left Nordea. He was yesterday on RealVision. Recommended, His main points are:

• inflation will disappoint this year – will be lower than mkt expects now
• inflation expectations are highly correlated to changes in oil price
• US 10 year yield should be peaking soon – at some point this year long bonds will be the place to be
• EURUSD expects to go to 1.05
• credit spreads are too low, HY could be one of the victims of the market unfolding
• I would be careful about sectors that are clearly overweight right now, banks, energy – sectors like that. if we see QT into slowing economy, investors will be leaving the sectors in favor of less risky companies such as pharma
• I would start planning now to rotate my equities to less risky and more defensive sectors
• I would be super short industrial commodities. There is a strong correlation between credit creation and industrial commodities. As soon as you withdraw credit, which is about to happen, it would influence industrial commodities
• Russia, Brazil and other countries linked to the cycle will be affected.
• you are not afraid of political risk of being long China, this might be a good trade
• I am US long bonds and USD

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

Pareto: “Norske Skog is trading at 4x EV/EBITDA vs peers at 8-9x. Publication paper markets are tight and prices rising. Making us increasingly confidence on a cyclical rebound. This coupled with diversified revenue mix, growth markets exposure and a greener footprint moving closer – a repricing of NSKOG seems warranted.“

Q4 EBITDA is due to almost triple vs Q3

Pareto increased its Q4 EBITDA adj. of NOK 300m, up from previous NOK 225m estimate and vs NOK 111m in Q3, ahead of consensus of NOK 220m (Bloomberg). Publication paper prices are lifted ~20% across all grades (including energy surcharges) and should more than compensate for raw material and energy costs.

Pareto increased its Price target to 70 NOK

Pareto Securities on NSKOG today:

“A revaluation seems due to come if NSKOG delivers on expansion projects. Projects that are reported on- time and budget and should tilt the company toward growth markets and provide earnings uplift.  While the outlook for publication paper has improved, and earnings uplift is due to be reflected in 2022, we think. Though, the equity market is not yet there – as NSKOG trades at ~4x EBITDA’22E vs. peers at 8-9x. Buy reiterated, TP NOK 70 (60), ~15% discount to our SOTP.”

Please note that SpareBank published research on NSKOG where they estimate NSKOG reaching 100 NOK per year. See our report on this here:

Sparebank on Norske Skog: “the share price could increase to 100+ NOK”

NSKOG due to report Q4’21 results on 4 February at 7:00 CET

That is a bit more than 2 weeks from now. We are seeing strong broker updates on the stock. Sparebank has issued three updates on NSKOG last week. Other brokers will rush with their updates too. NSKOG share price momentum before the Q4 report should accelerate on positive broker updates.

Why we like NSKOG:

• Strong paper prices should cause the EBITDA to tripple in 22 vs 21. Sparebank estimates EBITDA would increase from 500 mill NOK to 1600 mil NOK. EBITDA margin should increase from 4% to 13% over the two years.
• NSKOG is cheap vs peers. Under Sparebank estimates NSKOG trades at 4.2x 2022EBITDA vs 9.5x 2022EBITDA for the peers.
• Pareto estimates that the renewable portfolio has the same value as NSKOG current market cap. I do not believe the mkt gives NSKOG any credit. Its waste to energy plants comes into operation in five months. That should cause recognition of this value by investors.
• The mkt gives NSKOG no credit for significant CO2 permits revenue – Carnegie estimated the CO2 permits revenue between 45-60million EURO. That was done when permits were around 60 EURO. The permits are around 90 Euro, If you recalculate this to current CO2 prices, the next year CO2 revenues would be 60-80 Million EURO. That is very material for 350 million EURO market cap. For comparison SpareBank estimates that next year paper EBITDA would be 100 million EURO. CO2 Permits could increase the EBITDA by 60-80%.

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

SpareBank published on Friday an update on Africa Energy:

Africa Energy / Panoro – Important wells ongoing

During 2022, Africa Energy (27.5% interest) and Panoro (12.5% interest) plan to drill the Gazania well in the Orange Basin South Africa. Currently, there are two wells drilling in the Orange Basin in Namibia, on the other of the South African border: The Shell operated Venus well and the Total operated Graaf well. Upstream just published an article stating that “Shell hits oil in closely-watched Namibian wildcat”, but that is “…it is too early to say if commercial volumes have been found.” The update is positive for Africa Energy and Panoro as these two companies will drill the Gazania well in the Orange Basin South Africa. Any discovery in the Orange Basin may bring more attention to the region and is positive for the Gazania prospect in Block 2B. In the scenario of a commercial discovery within the pre-drill resource range on Gazania, we estimate a potential NAV uplift of SEK 1.3/share (25% of current NAV) and NOK 7-8/share of for Panoro (15-17% of current NAV). Admittedly, a key risk factor for the Block 2B is that the licence matures in November 2022, which means that the partners need to secure a rig soon.

Africa Energy / Panoro – Azinam acquired by Eco Atlantic, positive for progress of drilling of Gazania prospect

As highlighted in our update below, we expected a structural change in the 2B licence partnership. Eco Atlantic, an E&P with focus on Atlantic Margins in Guyana and South/West of Africa, just announced an acquisition of 100% of Azinam. Azinam is controlled by Seacrest Capital Group and is the operator of Block 2B. The consideration is 16.65% equity stake in the enlarged Group Eco Atlantic + Azinam, implying a deal value of around USD 11-12m on our estimates. For Africa Energy and Panoro, the deal is positive as it brings in a financially stronger partner and it reduces the timing risk for the Gazania well. In the scenario of a commercial Gazania discovery within the pre-drill resource range on Gazania, we estimate a potential NAV uplift of SEK 1.3/share (25% of current NAV) for Africa Energy and NOK 7-8/share of for Panoro (15-17% of current NAV).

My comment

SpareBank emphasises need to contract a rig for 2B soon. See my Minutes of the call with Garrett Soden, Africa Energy CEO published here last week. Rig timetable included there. Expect the announcement within the next 2-4 weeks. should be a major catalysts.

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.

Today share price is 40 NOK. Sparebank is arguing for 100+ NOK.

Both SpareBank and Pareto have Norske Skog as a top pick in their monthly top ideas. I am not sure, if any other share is in both top list ideas.

Summary from SpareBank note on NSKOG from 12/1/22:

NORSKE SKOG: To cover its rising energy coast NSKOG is currently adding a 125EUR/mt surcharge on LWC paper and 95EUR/mt on newsprint shipments for Q1. Our take is that these surcharges will be accepted by the market due to its tight market-balance.

We lift our estimates and expect consensus to follow. Adjusting for an estimated increase of about 130m NOK in gas/electricity and recovered paper (RCP) costs for Q4 – Q1’22 we estimate an annualized run-rate EBITDA of ~1,600m NOK.

Our quarterly cash flow estimates are in our mind in line with NSKOG’s implied estimates in the Capital Markets Day presentation. In a going-concern scenario we argue that the share price could increase to 100+ NOK. The share is trading at 39 NOK. A 100 NOK scenario increases the market cap with ~5.75bn NOK and the conversion capex is estimated to be 3.5BN NOK

Why I like NSKOG:

• Strong paper prices should cause the EBITDA to tripple in 22 vs 21. Sparebank estimates EBITDA would increase from 500 mill NOK to 1600 mil NOK. EBITDA margin should increase from 4% to 13% over the two years.
• NSKOG is cheap vs peers. Under Sparebank estimates NSKOG trades at 4.2x 2022EBITDA vs 9.5x 2022EBITDA for the peers.
• Pareto estimates that the renewable portfolio has the same value as NSKOG current market cap. I do not believe the mkt gives NSKOG any credit. Its waste to energy plants comes into operation in five months. That should cause recognition of this value by investors.
• The mkt gives NSKOG no credit for significant CO2 permits revenue – Carnegie estimated the CO2 permits revenue between 45-60million EURO. That was done when permits were around 60 EURO. The permits are around 90 Euro, If you recalculate this to current CO2 prices, the next year CO2 revenues would be 60-80 Million EURO. That is very material for 350 million EURO market cap. For comparison SpareBank estimates that next year paper EBITDA would be 100 million EURO. CO2 Permits could increase the EBITDA by 60-80%.

Disclosure: 

The goal of the blog is to provide investment ideas for further research. I/we have a beneficial position in the shares discussed above either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment action.