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This year I have analysed around 30-40 IPOs from Scandinavia. For me Linkfire was the most interesting company I looked at and bought into this year. The reason is simple:

• Linkfire has a potential to be ten times higher over the next 3-5 years. Not many companies can achieve that.
• There are many music streaming companies, but only one company services all majors. Linkfire has 70% market share in the novel product.
• Linkfire has been growing revenues 50-70% CAGR. The growth is accelerating with penetration into new segments. Gross margin is stable at 76%.
• Linkfire is negotiating on purchasing the second largest company to strenghten its position.
• There are multiple catalysts in the next three months that should double the share price over that time horison.

I enclose below a short video introducing Linkfire and an article that summarises full investment thesis including the short term catalysts. Do recommend to go over both.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439470-linkfire-music-streaming-play-market-leader-growing-above-50-percent

The below 90 second video introduces the investment thesis. It was produced only yesterday.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LINKFIRE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The article does not represent investment advice.

• There are many streaming companies. But there is just one dominating service company that serves most of them with 70% market share. Its name is Linkfire.
• Linkfire connects consumers on social platforms who wanted to download a song to music streaming companies that provide the content. Linkfire collects revenues from both.
• Linkfire revenues have grown at 40%-60% CAGR with a stable 76% gross margin. The growth is accelerating further in 2021.
• Linkfire was a victim of a difficult IPO timing. If it was placed in January or February, its share price would’ve doubled on debut.
• Very strong catalysts in the next six months should cause the share price to double.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439470-linkfire-music-streaming-play-market-leader-growing-above-50-percent

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OTHER OPPORTUNITIES TO LOOK AT:

Biovica – is one of the top picks for this quarter. The company is due to get FDA approval and start sales in the US. The company has 25 studies from leading US and EU hospitals that their breast cancer works, saves lives and costs of treatments. Biovica is to become a global leader in this novel way of testing for cancer. Xbrane, in a similar situation, doubled in two months prior to such an announcement. Biovica will most likely do as well. See the below article for the full investment case:

Biovica International Should Double On Novel Breast Cancer Test Launch In Q3 | Seeking Alpha

Two weeks ago Quantafuel sold off due to a delay of Skive continues production. Investors viewed this as increasing uncertainty over Quantafuel ability to chemically recycle plastic.

Today, Quantafuel announced that BASF converted their convertible loan into shares of Quantafuel. I view this as very positive. BASF knows more about Quantafuel more, than anybody else. They have been helping Quantafuel since the start and have they staff permanently at Quantafuel plant. The fact BASF decided to convert loan into equity is a strong vote of confidence. The press release provided the below quotes:

“After further equity injections by third parties and in the course of continuously optimizing BASF’s financial investments, BASF decided to convert the loan into new shares,” says Dr. Lars Kissau, Senior Vice President Global Strategic Business Development at BASF’s Petrochemicals division. “Quantafuel’s technology remains an important building block for BASF’s ChemCyclingTM project with the aim to use pyrolysis oil as feedstock in chemical production.”

“We are happy that BASF have decided to convert the loan into shares, making them our largest shareholder. We are very much looking forward to the continued cooperation,” says Ann-Christin Andersen, Chair of Quantafuel’s Board.

I believe the Quantafuel shares reached bottom today. The shares should start re-rating, as investors digest the importance of today’s announcement.

The main message BASF is send in us is: BASF is confident in Quantafuel ability to deliver. I believe investors should listen.

Wait for a string of good news from Quantafuel and proof of concept, that should be comming soon.

OTHER OPPORTUNITIES TO LOOK AT:

Biovica – is one of the top picks for this quarter. The company is due to get FDA approval and start sales in the US. The company has 25 studies from leading US and EU hospitals that their breast cancer works, saves lives and costs of treatments. Biovica is to become a global leader in this novel way of testing for cancer. Xbrane, in a similar situation, doubled in two months prior to such an announcement. Biovica will most likely do as well. See the below article for the full investment case:

Biovica International Should Double On Novel Breast Cancer Test Launch In Q3 | Seeking Alpha

Linkfire. It is a recent IPO listed in Stockholm. It was placed at 11.20 SEK, it is now around 10 SEK. It is a play on the growth of music streaming and, in the next phase, movie streaming. Pareto will be publishing research in two weeks time. I am long and very bullish, Linkfire. I will publish an article on Linkfire in the next two weeks.

I am invested in good oil assets, but they have not moved as expected. The reason, I think, is that the markets changed. For share price to grow, the companies must deliver cash earnings. It is not enough to declare the cash is coming. The market wants to see the cash. If the cash is delivered, the share prices should re-rate. Both below companies are good examples of that.

My favourite oil assets

Africa Energy – AEC has been one of my most favourite assets. It has a 10% stake in one of the largest gas condensate deposits globally, just off South Africa. The operator of the asset is French Total. AEC declared it wants to derisk the asset and sell it. Earlier this year, AEC announced that Total aims to sign an offtake agreement with the South Africa government by October. When this happens, AEC will be in a position to sell its stake without problems. At least, that is what a leading Norweigan oil analyst told me today. Based on my analysis, the 11B/12B deposit value should be a multiple of current market capitalisation. I expect at least a 100%-200% return on the investment.

The stock has drifted down as retail got tired of waiting. Pity I am invested up to my own limits; otherwise, I would buy more.

There is a detailed thesis on this opportunity:

Africa Energy – The Highest Risk-Reward Opportunity Within Lundin Oil Group (OTCMKTS:HPMCF) | Seeking Alpha

Panoro – has been one of the best capital allocators in the industry. When others were scared, Panoro was buying. They bought assets when the oil price was USD 40. The results are impressive. According to Pareto, its oil revenues are going to rise from USD 27 million in 2020 to USD 173 million in 2021. Its Cash flows will increase from USD5 million in 2020 to USD120 million in 2021. The market capitalisation is around USD 200 million. The share price trades at PE of around 4. All these improvements are not reflected in the share price. Panoro is reporting 25/8. It should show material cash earnings improvement, and the share price should finally reflect this.

OTHER OPPORTUNITIES TO LOOK AT:

Quantafuel – the stock sold off 30% in the last 10 days on delay of Skive and CEO resignation. The management stepped in and started to buy shares. QFUEL had this moves before. These moves have so far been profitable. I played it three times. I am very long QFUEL. Thesis is below:

Quantafuel, The Global Leader In Chemical Recycling Of Plastic, Backed By BASF And Vitol Has Potential To Multiply Your Investment (OTCMKTS:QNTFF) | Seeking Alpha

Biovica – is one of the top picks for this quarter. The company is due to get FDA approval and start sales in the US. The company has 25 studies from leading US and EU hospitals that their breast cancer works, saves lives and costs of treatments. Biovica is to become a global leader in this novel way of testing for cancer. Xbrane, in a similar situation, doubled in two months prior to such an announcement. Biovica will most likely do as well. See the below article for the full investment case:

Biovica International Should Double On Novel Breast Cancer Test Launch In Q3 | Seeking Alpha

Linkfire. It is a recent IPO listed in Stockholm. It was placed at 11.20 SEK, it is now around 10 SEK. It is a play on the growth of music streaming and, in the next phase, movie streaming. Pareto will be publishing research in two weeks time. I am long and very bullish, Linkfire. I will publish an article on Linkfire in the next two weeks.

Summary

• Cancer diagnostics is a strongly evolving field. Biovica’s novel cancer test can detect breast cancer progress cheaper and much faster than current methods. Biovica is the global leader in the field
• Its unprecedented 30 clinical trials in the prominent US and European hospitals minimize the risk of FDA failure. Biovica expects FDA approval and US launch by the Q3 end.
• Share prices of pharma companies tend to move strongly before a major catalyst. Biovica should be a perfect example of this.
• Biovica is up almost 40% in last two weeks. This trend is most likely going to continue for at least one more month prior to FDA. The recent price move may indicate, that the FDA may come sooner than currently expected August.
• My price target in six weeks (prior to FDA) is 100-140 SEK. The current share price is 60 SEK. Very good upside for one month and half.

Full investment thesis

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

When investing one thing to follow is macro. I follow Darius Dale for macro. Of all the research he is the most reliable. See 42macro.com.

His recent position is:

• inflation is decelerating and will be decelerating further. This has several implications – the inflation linked assets are loosing steem.
  • Commodities are decreasing – look at CRB index. Most commodities are going down with exception of oil. Oil is lately loosing stream too.
  • USD and other risk off assets are strengthening
  • investors are starting to rotate from inflation and growth assets into more defensivě plays
  • reopening stocks might be too risky to stay in – the expectations have been too high and will never be met
  • interest rates are going down – this should allow people to come back to tech and green stocks. As the economies will be growing less strong than they did in Q1/Q2, focus should be on high quality stocks.

In summary – Scandinavia green stocks were hit early this year when people became were scared of inflation. The inflation worries are starting to disappear. Might be time to start increasing exposure back into those stocks that sold off. High quality should perform better.

IDEAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH:

Quantafuel – the stock sold off 30% in the last 10 days on delay of Skive and CEO resignation. The management stepped in and started to buy shares. QFUEL had this moves before. These moves have so far been profitable. I played it three times. I am long QFUEL. Very long.

Biovica – it is one of the top picks for this quarter. The company is due to get FDA approval and start sales in the US. The company has 25 studies from top US and EU hospitals, that their breast cancer works, safes lives and costs of treatments. Biovica is to become a global leader in this novel way of testing for cancer. Xbrane in similar situation doubled in two months prior such announcement. Biovica will most likely do as well. See the below article for full investment case:

Biovica International Should Double On Novel Breast Cancer Test Launch In Q3 | Seeking Alpha

Linkfire. It is a recent IPO listed in Stockholm. It was placed at 11.20 SEK, it is now around 10 SEK. It is a play on growth of music streaming and in the next phase movie streaming. Pareto will be publishing research in two weeks time. I am long and very bullish Linkfire. I will publish an article on Linkfire in the next two weeks.

In the last few days, Quantafuel managers reported the below transactions :

• 7/7/2021 – Kjetil Bøhn, Special Advisor in Quantafuel ASA, has today bought 20,000 shares in Quantafuel ASA through his wholly owned company KB Management AS, at a price of NOK 33.30 per share. After the transaction, Kjetil Bøhn and affiliates holds 3,677,050 shares and 600,000 options in Quantafuel ASA.

• 6/7/2021 – Kristian Flaten, CFO in Quantafuel ASA, has today bought 2,000 shares in Quantafuel ASA at a price of NOK 35.10 per share. After the transaction, Kristian Flaten holds 5,000 shares and 200,000 options in Quantafuel ASA.

• 5/7/2021 Wenche Teigland, Member of the Board of Directors in Quantafuel ASA, has today bought 1,430 shares in Quantafuel ASA at a price of NOK 35.10 per share. After the transaction, Wenche Teigland holds 1,430 shares and 40,000 options in Quantafuel ASA.

Quantafuel also announced purchase of land for building next large plant in Denmark:

Today, Quantafuel is pleased to announce the purchase of a 14.5-acre site, with an option to purchase an additional 12 acres in Esbjerg, Denmark. Here, Quantafuel plans to build one of the biggest plastic waste sorting plants in Europe, which also will be the first of its kind in Denmark. See the link below for more details on this

Media – Quantafuel

All the above news are positive. Despite that the shares is still in negative momentum. I believe one quarter commercionalisation delay due to the delayed supply of new equipment caused by COVID situation at Quantafuel supplies does not justify 30% decline in Quantafuel market cap this week. I understand retail is selling and institutional investors are buying…

We spoke to the senior management on Tuesday. The link to the minutes from the call are below:

Minutes of the call with Quantafuel management today | Fit Investment Ideas

Other opportunities for further research:

1. Biovica. I recommend reading the below article. It was published yesterday. Its publication caused the share price move by 13.4%. My base case is, that the share price should double by September launch of its novel cancer test in the US.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

2. Linkfire. It is a recent IPO listed in Stockholm. It is a play on growth of music streaming and in the next phase movie streaming. I am long and very bullish Linkfire. I will publish an article on Linkfire in next two weeks.

I had an opportunity to join a call with Quantafuel management today. The participants were Dr Lach and the CFO Kristian Flatten:

• Dr. Lach joined Quantafuel from BASF this year. He did most of the talking. He is a brilliant mind, very smart and very knowledgeable. He comes out like a natural leader. He would be an ideal CEO for Quantafuel in my view.
• While Kjetil (previous CEO) was an overpromise and underdeliver CEO, Dr. Lach is the solid German – underpromise and overdeliver kind a guy.
• He confirmed that Kjetil wanted to free his hands for other projects for some time. The plan was for Kjetil to leave in mid year after Skive one line continuing production milestone achieved. Kjetil agreed with the board, that he would leave despite Skive still in progress. I understand from them, that there is no more story to this.
• Dr. Lach reconfirm the production milestones defined in the press release published at the end of June. The Skive full production target on all lines has been postponed from Q3 to Q4. In my view it is a delay, that is not material for the longer term value of the company.
• We discussed output prices for which Quantafuel sells its products to BASF. The price is now around USD 1000 per ton. The price reflects that when the contract with BASF was negotiated, the oil prices were much lower than they are today. The contract will be renegotiated at some point and Quantafuel expects a price improvement.
• We also discussed, whether there will be enough plastic for Quantafuel to process. Dr. Lach explained, that Europe produces 60 million tons of plastic and produces 20 million tons of plastic waste. Out of this 15 million tons is suitable for chemical recycling. Skive is the largest chemical recycling plant in the world. Its capacity is 2O thousand tons per year. You can make a calculation, how many Skive size plants are now needed in Europe.
• Quantfuel contemplates listing on the main market in Oslo. At the moment most foreigners can not buy Quantafuel shares in Oslo, as most online platforms and smaller brokers do not allow purchases of shares listed on Euronext Growth market. The listing on the main market would expand investor universe outside Nordics, which would broaden the investor universe, increase liquidity and help the share price. Foreigners can buy the German listing, but that is not very liquid and therefore it is not the preferred option. We were not able to get a grip on the timing of this. It is my impression that it is rather in the coming months than weeks.
• The next catalyst will most likely be appointment of the permanent CEO and further details that should be published latest during the Q2 call scheduled for 31.8.
• In my view the market correction of around 20% is hard to understand. After the call I spoke to my Norweigan broker. They are trying to buy the stock for their clients, but there is very few sellers at these price levels. That is an encouraging sign, that the share price may reached a bottom.
• Subscribe to my blog below to receive further updates on Quantafuel

Other opportunities for further research:

1. Biovica. I recommend reading the below article. It was published yesterday. Its publication caused the share price move by 13.4%. My base case is, that the share price should double by September launch of its novel cancer test in the US.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

1. Linkfire. It is a recent IPO listed in Stockholm. It is a play on growth of music streaming and in the next phase movie streaming. I am long and very bullish Linkfire. I will publish an article on Linkfire in next two weeks.

• Three months ago, I wrote an article for SA on Xbrane. I predicted a strong share price growth by the Phase 3 readout. Xbrane doubled.
• Biovica is a similar case. It should double in the next three months. For the same reasons as Xbrane did.
• Cancer diagnostics is a strongly evolving field. Biovica’s novel cancer test can detect breast cancer progress cheaper and much faster than current methods.
• Its unprecedented 30 clinical trials in the prominent US and European hospitals minimize the risk of FDA failure. Biovica expects FDA approval and US launch by the Q3 end.
• Share prices of pharma companies tend to move strongly before a major catalyst. Biovica should be a perfect example of this.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437698-biovica-international-should-double-on-novel-breast-cancer-test-launch-in-q3

The global market leading marketing platform for music labels and artists.

I am long Linkfire. I think it is a case, that is worth to do some work on. They are the market leader and they will drive the industry consolidation.

• Top major music labels use Linkfire with a combined market share of 70%

• Marketing platform services more than 85,000 users as of 2020• In 2020, Linkfire connected 1.5B consumers to music products (48 per second)
https://investors.linkfire.com/investors#reports-and-presentations

XBrane announced today the positive Phase 3 study data and application for FDA approval. I am taking my profits. I first wrote about it when it was about 70 SEK. Now it is 170 SEK. The company will need raise cash and it will take some time for the company to get the FDA approvals. There may not be happening much for the next year, so I am taking my profits and redirecting my attention to Biovica – see my previous comments on this. I believe that Biovica will double in the next two months as retail will get excited on the forthcoming FDA approval and product launch in the US. See past posts for details and links to research.